NAS/QQQ Weekend Look (Mar 14-18)
Here is the weekend look at Mar 14 - 18th. The down trend continued last week with the Nasdaq dropping 4% closing about 268 points above the Feb 24th low. Difficult trading continued with a counter trend rally on Wednesday back into the 9 ema only to be sold off later in the week. The CPI data came in as expected and was met with a muted response from the market initially, but war tensions and worries that China may join the fray kept the buyers at bay.
This week traders will be waiting on the March rate decision from the Fed. Although the market has already priced in the expect 25 basic point increase in rates the market will remain cautious of any surprises. Especially during the question period following the rate announcement when Powell's remarks will be followed closely. Along with the rate announcement we also have a serious spike in covid cases in China as well as Vietnam. Shenzhen has locked down 17mil people and is a major supply center being the 4th largest port in the world. Suffice to say inflationary pressure are set to get worse. On the positive side there are rumors of a cease fire in Ukraine. Any positive news on the war front would be very positive for the market and could lead to a massive short covering rally.
From the perspective of price the NAS remains locked within a downward channel. Key levels remain the Feb 24th low and the 21 ema above. Given all that I have mentioned above the market is poised to explode in either direction. A break below the Feb 24th low could easily take us down to 12000. A break above the 21ema could easily push it up 15000. I expect the daily ranges to continue to be wide. Last week the swings averaged about 500 points each day. We are in unprecedented times and the only certainty right now is continued volatility and uncertainty. As I have noted before. I am limiting my trading to intraday using mostly futures and a few select tickers that I regularly trade such as TSLA & AAPL. Swings are off the table for the time being.
Weekly Events....
Monday...
Tuesday... OPEC & US PPI
Wednesday... US Retail Sales, EIA Crude, RATE DECISION & FOMC Press Conference!!!
Thursday... Housing Starts, Jobless Claims & Industrial production
Friday... US Homes sales
Notable Earnings...
Monday... Earnings from: COUP, MTN
Wednesday... GES, PD, WSM, ZTO, LEN
Thursday... CSIQ, DG, FDX, GME, GSKY, PAGS
Bullish notes...
Potential Ukraine/Russia Truce
Oversold metrics
Positive Rate reaction
Positive inflation data drop
Bearish notes...
Covid spike in Asia
Ukraine/Russia war intensifies
China Back Russia
Negative Rate reaction
Inflations pressures increase
10y yield breaks 2.10%
This week traders will be waiting on the March rate decision from the Fed. Although the market has already priced in the expect 25 basic point increase in rates the market will remain cautious of any surprises. Especially during the question period following the rate announcement when Powell's remarks will be followed closely. Along with the rate announcement we also have a serious spike in covid cases in China as well as Vietnam. Shenzhen has locked down 17mil people and is a major supply center being the 4th largest port in the world. Suffice to say inflationary pressure are set to get worse. On the positive side there are rumors of a cease fire in Ukraine. Any positive news on the war front would be very positive for the market and could lead to a massive short covering rally.
From the perspective of price the NAS remains locked within a downward channel. Key levels remain the Feb 24th low and the 21 ema above. Given all that I have mentioned above the market is poised to explode in either direction. A break below the Feb 24th low could easily take us down to 12000. A break above the 21ema could easily push it up 15000. I expect the daily ranges to continue to be wide. Last week the swings averaged about 500 points each day. We are in unprecedented times and the only certainty right now is continued volatility and uncertainty. As I have noted before. I am limiting my trading to intraday using mostly futures and a few select tickers that I regularly trade such as TSLA & AAPL. Swings are off the table for the time being.
Weekly Events....
Monday...
Tuesday... OPEC & US PPI
Wednesday... US Retail Sales, EIA Crude, RATE DECISION & FOMC Press Conference!!!
Thursday... Housing Starts, Jobless Claims & Industrial production
Friday... US Homes sales
Notable Earnings...
Monday... Earnings from: COUP, MTN
Wednesday... GES, PD, WSM, ZTO, LEN
Thursday... CSIQ, DG, FDX, GME, GSKY, PAGS
Bullish notes...
Potential Ukraine/Russia Truce
Oversold metrics
Positive Rate reaction
Positive inflation data drop
Bearish notes...
Covid spike in Asia
Ukraine/Russia war intensifies
China Back Russia
Negative Rate reaction
Inflations pressures increase
10y yield breaks 2.10%
Comment:
I mentioned that price was stuck in a channel. Look a little more like a descending wedge which leans bullish. Key levels remain the same.
Comment:
After slowly trickling down price has found a little support at the bottom of the wedge. The Feb 24th low was breached briefly but is holding for now. Lighter than expected inflation data is the catalyst. Upward trend needs to be confirmed in the cash session.
Comment:
Price confirmed to the upside this morning yielding a nice 300pt move into the middle of the wedge. I've drawn the lower time frame neutral. Price rallied right into the bottom of the neutral and stopped. Price will either reject and fall back down from here or push up to the top of the neutral which lines up with the 21 ema. Interesting the bottom of the higher time frame neutral now lines up with the 200sma. That would be the next target to the upside. So a lot of confluence happening right now. The Fed announcement should decide the direction.
Comment:
Correction... the top of the higher time frame neutral lines up with the 200 sma.
Comment:
Daily look
Comment:
Here is a look at how I play the levels posted intraday.
Pushing toward the top of the neutral. Lets see if the target gets
hit before the Fed meeting. A stop would be a move back below the
236 fib line.
Pushing toward the top of the neutral. Lets see if the target gets
hit before the Fed meeting. A stop would be a move back below the
236 fib line.
Comment:
Comment:
Ton of charts this week b/c the volatility is so high. Price broke above the 21ema and is on top of the neutral. Expect a retest lower before going higher. Needs to make a new high before continuation is confirmed. Still possible to reject and fall back down. Below the neutral is negative.
Comment:
Pull back then push higher now at the HTF Neutral (red box).. Expecting resistance here. Watch the key pivot marked with the arrow. Above there a run to the 200 sma is possible
