Original chart posted on 10-10-22, updates below. NAZ is staying in the channel and did bounce near 10640 KL. POC has dropped near 11,500 with sideways channel (solid red lines with mid as dash). NAZ may head back toward upper channel or POC. Will update with daily 11-7-22 post with intraday KL's.
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POC has moved up to 11,620 or top of MOP.
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10-10-22 was YE Post with Box, POC and MOP. Looking for NAZ to close by YE at mid MOP or 11,300. At top of Box now, circles are turning points. Past 2 days the struggle higher looked real and strange lift at 100MA looked about as fake as it gets. Will close this post at YE. Have a great balance of the year and thank you all for your support, I will let you know about next service.
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Drop to mid box or U Turn #5
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White U Turn and Yellow is no U Turn
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11485 is Old Box Bottom and near POC, may see a bounce or some support.
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NAZ did bounce off 11480, Old Box Bottom
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NQ1 Update, not much has changed. Up some and back lower some. NAZ still in the Box above POC.
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I will update next week from here. Chart below is 1HR NQH2023. White box is DZ Danger Zone, yellow circles are U Turns ( Usually generated in pre Open and by way of Govt' news/data), red dash is mid MOP channel, Long above and Short below. Yellow lines are KL's (key levels). I am sitting Long now, expecting U Turn.
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NQ1, White Dash TL 2nd test on current Pop. Turning point for next move and near Mid MOP.
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NQ1, NAZ above 30MA (white line), Danger Zone (white Box) and TLX (red line) we should see it move toward the white arrow target. The NAZ staying above 30MA is sign of good support.
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2 Year view. A run up would make for a better Short for the next Dip which many are calling for next year. Just a flow play off current technical.
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Monday Play, Mid MOP Pop and needs to hold.
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NAZ may struggle from 750-85
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No Pass at upper MOP, look for 11690 retest
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11770 target 1
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11690 retest and Mid MOP, a hold should produce a decent lift.
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Low Volume games, you need to understand that and keep your targets in focus, expect whippy games.
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Sitting in the MOP, every move up gets hit and drops back. Closing Long for now. TESLA down 6%, VIX Up, 10YN yield Up, Dollar Up. This could get nasty.
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30 point range for 3 hours, just not what I play. May pop out and run or head fake, just not any strength today.
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11770 Target Hit, Good for you if you held. Trail with stop if you are in.
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2nd Leg of day, this one shook me out as it was a Snail.
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May drop back to 11730
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Back to Friday range prior to drop and start of U Turn #5. Weak PA with nothing but push/pull. Feels like a rally is on the way.
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30MA Held
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Today just did not seem real, think the U Turn #5 is a offset. May see drop Tuesday and Pop on Fed Day.
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CPI Trade Range, so far DZ U Turn #5 is playing out just like 1-4. Just seems a bit too easy to call or follow, so use a stop.
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Friday had Buying into selling, Monday was selling into buying and the O/N lift. Caution with Open after Pre Open Knee Jerk CPI Pop Move.
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Trading idea as I believe we see a wiggle on this one and a better Pop tomorrow. Short NQZ for 100 point drop and Long NQH. From 11900.
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2 minute 400 point POP. WE know how these end up.
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Pattern is NAZ will need to take out O/N Prop high, that is 1st sign of next move.
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KL's, NQ1
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Push Pull is showing up some. Not good after that Pop. Careful on any Long under O/N High.
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Looking like Pop Offset as Ticks are just not in agreement.
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Dropped my short trade at 12055
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12285 is Long target on 2nd Long, needs to pass 12120.
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Retesting O/N low, 12100 is upper 1st target above 11850
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Long set up for tomorrow POP. Drop was retesting Buyer interest. Watch Tesla turn. 11875 should be god Long set up on Hold.
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11875 god for 100
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Scalps on 2 Longs
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U Turn #5 did not go as others, I had a feeling that the Pop would have sold off. Look for a Pop tomorrow as we resume the flow. Flat NAZ is the goal and is why the Pop offset the drop.
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Daily, hit mid channel and dropped back, still above 30MA and DZ.
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Range tomorrow.
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O/N will be pivot range tonight.
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Pre Open Scalp Long
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11927 and above Long Scalp
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NAZ needs to get past Diag TL, should fly up if does.
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11970 Is Fib level, may be struggle
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11880 KL is support, NAZ rejected at Fib level. Long above 927 for now. Scalp on the Long trades I call. These are Scalps at stall. You can Short back to Long Entry if you want.
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NAZ showing zero strength
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Scalp on Stall.
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Long Target hit with 5, here is the problem
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Close Long and consider shorting under 12031
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12031 pass is a Hold.
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Yesterday drop to Long Set Up is playing out. Trail as this will drop today.
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927 to 027, 100 points on a trade is about the Max these days. Take profit, let drop and look for new entry. Stepping away until the Close.
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Should see selling at 12072.
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Top 1st 30M test.
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M on 15M and 12072 no pass, not sure which direction here, Flat. Will wait on this one, Danger Zone could be target for a twist.
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The twist, 825 needs to hold.
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825 Long, may drop back.
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KL's are reliable for targets.
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Just have to trade, place stop and let it go.
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This reaction is calm.
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Watch ticks, naz may close at low
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DZ U Turn #5
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12072 is next target NAZ will try for.
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NAZ under yesterday Support, may be an issue.
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IDS50, above line is Long and below is Short.
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11817 needs to hold, 11600 is POC
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NAZ broke 11817 and is back in mid MOP. POC 11600 should be lower support. U Turn Zone is the MOP Channel.
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11705 is KL Long above for Scalp to 11755 test. NAZ should start testing higher, prior to going lower on stalled/failed Pops.
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Scalp trade from above. Buy on dip toward 705 and take profit near 750, SL below 705
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U Turn Zone
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NAZ will try for 11555, Options expiration is tomorrow, may have some effect today.
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Bounce off TL
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If rally for balance of year would be here.
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In the DZ. Expect a bounce.
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11600 is upper and yellow are lower support
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Possible O/N play or reverse. O/N Tends to move to pivots, we have not seen much propping lately so me may be due for a twist and will set up better Short.
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They may also sneak in the DZ U Turn #5 in the O/N should it get near upper pivot.
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NAZ went with lower pivot direction and KL 11322 hit.
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NAZ in DZ and at yellow circle zone from earlier chart, expect a bounce today. I am out all day
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NAZ will struggle through 11600, will need to retry prior to lower move. Play Yellow KL's in opposite direction and should NAZ fail at 11600, Short.
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U Turn in play, did and bounce back up.
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IDS20 set ups. Why not short the NAZ? Because it is rigged to upside. I choose to Scalp Longs after the drop (if I miss the Short, which I have past 2 days). The chart below will show arrows in and out of trade. You can short the NAZ on out, if you want.
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30M, IDS20, IDS50 Set Up
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11400 is Mid Range of O/N, NAZ has no clear direction and since off low, lower for 3 days and rigging is due, I would look Long after 2nd drop to support hold. If you see push pull look short.
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11365 retest and bounce at Open. TL may rotate around some.
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365 to 312 is the range, KL Long.
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Just getting back, looks like firing Longs from 11312 provided the most points today. If you did short the Open stall, you are perfect. 11365 on close.
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Today, NAZ just bounced off Daily Pivot, mentioned the Pivot Point earlier. These are computer programed targets and will be reliable over Holiday weeks. Have a great Weekend.
Trade closed manually:
Started new update.
