NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Sep18-22)

SUMMARY

• NQ finished the week with a loss of -0.82% after trading in a range of 356 pts.
  
• NQ had some 100% reversals above/below the 21 ema
  
• NQ closed again on the 55 ema below the 21 ema.
  
• Price is still above the HTF 618 Fib and upward trendline.
  
• Sectors closed mixed with XLU & XLC leading while XLK pulled back. XLE still strong.
  
• 10 year bond yields push back above 4.27 last week.
  
• Still in a seasonally weak period of the year.
  
• If price breaks back below the 55 ema a full compound correction to the Aug 16th high is still possible.
  
• FOMC rates discision on Wed will dominate market narrative this week.
  
• Expect volatile unpredicatable price action leading up to FOMC.
  

BULLISH NOTES

• NQ still above the 55ema
  
• Potential move back above the Mar 29th high.
  
• NQ remains in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
  
• Up trend remains in place if any pull back stays above 50% Fib RT
  
• Potential positive reaction to FOMC rate decision.
  
• Potential bounce off the lower trendline
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Price rejected at the Mar 29th high
  
• Potential double top on a re-test of the Mar 29th high.
  
• Seasonally weak period of the year for stocks
  
• Potential compound correcton to the Aug 16th high & lower trendline
  
• A move below the Aug 16h high would drop price out of the bull zone.
  
• Potential negative reaction to FOMC rate decision
  
• Potential 10 year yield move above 4.30%
  
• 200 SMA is now a potential downside
  

Comment:

$NQ_F opened the week chopping sideways at the 55 ema forming a large bearish looking flag. If Monday's low cannot hold next support comes in at the upward trendline. Recovery of the 55 ema would be the first step towards a trend reversal.

Comment:

$NQ_F hit the upward trendline target after losing the 55 ema. Price bounced from the target zone back above the 55 ema as shorts covered into the FOMC. Now in wait and see mode until after Powell speaks today.

Comment:

$NQ_ F Very negative reaction the FOMC meeting. Trendline broke and the 55 ema failed. Price now at the Aug 25kth pivot. Potential move to the Aug 18th pivot and a full compound corrective move into the Aug 16 high from 2022. May see a gap fill this morning. I price fails to retrace more than 50% I see that as bearish.

Comment:

$NQ_F failed to recover more that 50% yesterday and continued its bearish trend down to the Aug 18th pivot low. Bouncing now from deeply oversold conditions. If the Aug 18th pivot low is broken look for the full compound corrective move into the Aug 16th high. The two green boxes are down side targets and potential support. Trend reversal would not happen unless price reclaims the 55 ema.