NAZ currently at double bottom, white arrow is Long and Yellow is Short. I believe that rallies will be sold until we hit Box Bottom. O/N will try and lift the NAZ over Sunday through Holiday. The drop offset yesterday did work out well to cushion the drop today, this has been the playbook all year. Still looking for some big down O/N sessions and I feel they are near. I have mentioned it many times that we have not seen any limit down days YTD (the entire Bear).
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NAZ still under the Cliff.
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Yellow Line is a lower target, TYD equilibrium is much higher.
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For those that use IDS, just an update with PA. Friday I called a short at 95 with stop 20 up or 115. The point I want to mention the PA above 95 to top and stop level. I call rec's as Good Entry, meaning OK spot for trade. I have noticed for some time that my GE Levels get pushed (high/lower) by 30-50 points, then go in my called direction. Example on Friday: the greedy Pro's not only pushed price 65 points higher than GE, they mopped around 115 for some time before they made the longest run of the day. All of this was posted on Friday if you want to review and I mentioned the move up looked fake. We are moving into the 2 toughest months of the year for trading, 2 way days will be common. Divergence, KL's and stalls will be what to look for.
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On IDS 27, GE calls are when the price comes in past white, I assume start of move depending on Upper. GE Calls are like lazy trades as you assume it will go. The better spot is the upper yellow arrow. Red bars, MAZ is under mid line and Stoch is falling from upper. When you look at it now, 95 should have been Long and reverse at 440. We leave so much on the table every day, every day. It is there for the taking, so take it.
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Short adds or entry are yellow arrows
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Game: Stare or study the Circles and the FLOW of PA. If you can pattern recognize and predict/execute based on your judgement, you will trade with ease. Proof was my last trade on Friday was done in this way and those that were trading saw this in real time. The miss was the 100 points back up, I was tired and did not care. We have an abundance of opportunity so do not rush it.
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The same 3 - 4 signals usually will set up a Scalp trade to a previous KL or S/R.
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Divergence is key (upper indicator) and understanding the next probable direction. The Stoch position and rotation is the lower signal.
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Short set up at O/N Open, NAZ will need to test yellow arrow or pass. Otherwise short stays on.
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Long on pass and retest with other 2 circles confirming. I am not trading this just watching.
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Get in the Flow.
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Holiday O/N is sideways, the lower targets may be next after chop. NAZ deep in Danger Zone and has not been able to work any magic lifts or usual tricks for the upside?? This is extremely odd.
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Divergence here and retest hold failure is a short set up. Hold would be 12146 target. 12120 is KL and been resistance. Looking like a weak peak.
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Squares are weak peaks. Weak peaks can produce slight pop head fakes prior to drops.
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Weak peak longs are now trapped for the retest. NAZ will retest 120 from under and failure is drop.
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Red Line is Mid Level of O/N Range. NAZ will rotate around and test/retest. Current 120 did retest ML, failure to pass 120 or high will create a drop back to ML and or low or new lower low.
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Upper white line is the Divergence to the Price white and drop is developing.
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Easy trap so far.
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ML break will hit 180.
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Current O/N PA is top heavy and will balance out with some lower PA.
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Edge trades are at 120-130 and 170-180, ML is start of potential new edge once it breaks new high or new low. Edge trades are in opposite direction form an edge. Current is Short from 120 off weak peak. Scalp the range and add up points. The long/short runner is low probability trade, at this point.
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Weak peak scalp, stay short under ML.
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New edge test at ML and key for balance of Holiday session
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Predict, Count circles and Execute. Patterns, patterns, patterns. Who cares about being a fortune teller when you trade in the here and now.
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Have a great balance of day. Just add up the Scalp points during this Chop, way more than 50/50 chance at portion of runner to follow. And you may get some of that also. Intraday skills are where it is at, stay away form the fortune telling or fortune tellers.
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12080 hit.
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Correct Chart, close was off but range is the same.
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No hit to Lower target, play fan levels long/short until fail.
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3 yellow arrows are legs lower from 120 weak peak. 3 circles are bounce to fan levels and top of range, notice the lower Edge Trade past ML to Top. Also 055 was not a weak valley (sharp V). This current Top will be a Short should Divergence show up, stall and back to ML. 120 will/could now act as support with test from above. Watch head fakes around here at 150. Other view is that this is the Magic trick rally that one would expect during low volume Holiday. I did mention the oddness or lack of some tricks. Again, I do not know how people trade with time based or candle charts. No fortune telling, just follow the flow.
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30M Channel, notice how ML of range is bottom of 1st 30M (ML and new edge) pointing Up now. Need to see and play your edge trades, these are the best. If I would guess, 145 is a weak peak and this will go back to ML. This may happen after head fake pop.
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Careful in the O/N, have not seen this in awhile, wildcard. 3 yellow arrows.
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NAZ staying with Long above 12033 or white arrow on post and 2nd KL yellow line, using Fans for Scalps. O/N did prop up the NAZ with the long weekend and low volume session. Going to need it as it will most likely sell after or near Open (usually does). QT on its way in September.
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Divergence on the IDS 50 (right), watch TL break for 120 retest. This would be normal slight drop/pop for Open or prior.
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161 is KL, watch the PA and my yellow arrow here should NAZ test/fail at 161. Back after Open.
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NAZ with Diag TL and TLX
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Target Hit
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Fake Rally selling of O/N.
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Will be hard to turn Algo's, drop will drop lower and bounce some .
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120 retest from under
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Try to identify Weak Peaks for turns.
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Ticks are low and O/N Pop Drop Offset was the Holiday special so far.
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NAZ will Mop down here
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Pop may be a Long clean out, may drop back lower.
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Mid Mop.
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NAZ may play from Mop zone to Mop zone. Not looking for lift back up. Under 120 is Key.
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Many times the NAZ will lift back up prior to deep drop. Play edges of Mop Zone.
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Wicks sell zone.
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Still mopping
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Weak peak at 100
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Head fake at 140
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Drop will follow or it will pop through.
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Drop set up from 145, tricky Mop. Here we should go. SOUTH.
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12145 was the best spot for this stage of PA. 120 test then drop is likely.
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Testing 120, Stop nearby on short.
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Head fake number 2, hook short is developing.
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High Ticks would be the key signal near 145. May get stopped at 165.
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Sell Zone is holding for now. Buyers are loosing. NAZ still under Diag TL and 161. Slow sideways is a Mop, this should drop. Back to bottom of Mop. Watch for push pull jerky PA, all the way lower.
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Locked in the Buyers and lower we go. Watch the Ticks go huge negative.
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EU Info will be the excuse for drop.
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Lower stop to 100 or so.
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12021 is target.
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Stay Short, weak PA today on Long side. Stepping away, trail.
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Lower stop to 87
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12021 Hit and Flat, NAZ will Mop area or Pop back up some.
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The O/N and Dead Zone PA is used to confuse you, think the exact opposite of what it does.
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More range from Open in 60 minutes than other sessions.
Trade closed manually:
For the balance of day, block the noise and fortune tellers. Have to leave.
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12121 EOD
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NAZ needs to pass 040 and it may go up to 121.
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Under 039 is a Mop Up, should pop.
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No pass at 040.
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TTZ's, you should be way up even if you took 20-40 point hit at close. O/N will prop passed 040.
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Looking for Huge Prop in O/N as NAZ did not go much lower. NAZ is Holding for Now. TTZ's are variable and this close was choppy.