NVIDIA will report its latest earnings and revenues after tonight’s close. The ‘NVIDIA Effect’ has been a feature of the earnings season for about a year now. The semiconductor company is at the forefront of developments in generative AI and is critical in building the infrastructure required to power this technology. It has repeatedly surprised investors by announcing earnings and revenues which have blown way past analysts’ expectations. In addition, its forward guidance has been incredibly upbeat, and yet it has repeatedly beaten those expectations. NVIDIA has rallied 550% since the beginning of 2023. You can see on the chart where it exploded higher following the release of 2023 Q1 results. The stock is up 92% so far this year, and is back within 2% of its all-time high from early March. Could this be the day when the bubble bursts, assuming NVIDIA is in a bubble? The bar for success has certainly been set high. The Q1 consensus forecast is for earnings per share of $5.58 and revenues of $24.6 billion.
What happens after tonight’s close could also affect the wider market. NVIDIA is a major constituent of both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500, and a huge favourite with investors and traders alike. In addition, moves in NVIDIA affect any stock with a connection to generative AI. It’s worth noting that volatility in the S&P 500, as measured by the VIX, is at its lowest levels since early 2018. This does suggest a degree of overconfidence when it comes to US equities, especially as they’re not particularly cheap at current levels. But as someone famously said about the Great Financial Crisis, while the music’s playing, you’ve got to keep dancing. That’s not financial advice by the way, and it would be fair to say that anyone taking a position in NVIDIA ahead of the call is going for a complete punt.
What happens after tonight’s close could also affect the wider market. NVIDIA is a major constituent of both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500, and a huge favourite with investors and traders alike. In addition, moves in NVIDIA affect any stock with a connection to generative AI. It’s worth noting that volatility in the S&P 500, as measured by the VIX, is at its lowest levels since early 2018. This does suggest a degree of overconfidence when it comes to US equities, especially as they’re not particularly cheap at current levels. But as someone famously said about the Great Financial Crisis, while the music’s playing, you’ve got to keep dancing. That’s not financial advice by the way, and it would be fair to say that anyone taking a position in NVIDIA ahead of the call is going for a complete punt.