Long time viewer of ideas, first time posting. I am in no way an experienced expert in any sort of Technical Analysis, let alone Advanced Ichimoku theory, but have spent the last two years learning Advanced Ichimoku where I can. Have been practicing general TA for the past 5 years otherwise. Posting this idea is intended to be part of my educational journey, and I would love to hear any pointers/feedback/corrections/questions the community might have for me.
Brief Explanation before technical analysis:
This chart pairs Heiken-Ashi candles with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Time Analysis. The timeframe is 1y/1d. I marked 8/24/23's high of $502.66 as the beginning of our analysis. You can see it is marked with a red "+" symbol above it.
I created an Ichimoku Analysis indicator in pinescript that:
a) plots additional "+" symbols to mark basic & complex numerical values cited by Kinko Hyo time analysis. These values are essentially predicted "turning" dates where volatility may cause a reversal or reinforce a trend.
b) calculates 4 targets based on prices of wave peaks + valleys.
Now on to why I think we're looking at a pullback.
Techical Analysis:
Price Action:
- Increased strength in downward movements since NVDA's big pop on 5/24/23, which was due to strong earnings. We are forming somewhat of a megaphone pattern. I have lightly highlighted these movements.
Trend Analysis:
Heiken-Ashi candles are great when it comes to visualizing trends. Pairing completed formation of one or more trend breaking candles with other supporting factors (MACD, volume, etc) greatly increases chance of timing reversals, or hopping in/out of existing trends. We have completed two trend breaking candles, and are looking at the potential development of a bearish MACD cross.
Ichimoku Analysis:
- Price breaking and closing below tenkansen + means we may retreat to the kijunsen line at the $448 mark. For confirmation I would like to see a candle both open and close below the kijunsen.
- The orange line below point C is the NT-Target calculated from Points A-C. Seeing that we never reached the NT-Target during this last move, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw NVDA reaching the $375 area in this next move. Friday the 24th was also a date where we can experience a reversal, as indicated by the blue "+" under Point D. Our next "turning" date is 12/20/23.
Speculation & Sentiment:
This is more of how I feel personally, and incredibly simplified. I think that NVDA continuing to report fantastic earnings is nothing surprising to the big money out there. I think big money has been sitting on some amazing gains over the last few months, and they are itching to lock those in. I think the fall on earnings was confirmation to big money that NVDA will continue to be a great investment for them to dump money into, and now that they have this confirmation it's time to find a better entry. By dropping the price, big money can dump more money in later to increase their holdings and, well, make even more money. Isn't that always the goal?
There's honestly so much more to address here, including positioning of the components of the ichimoku cloud, but I've already listed the parts of my technical analysis I feel is most important. I've been trading as a hobby for the past five years and have found that these aspects have worked best for me personally.
TL;DR: (my predictions)
1. "Tis but a flesh wound." We could fall down to and bounce off of the tenkansen (currently ~$448) and continue upwards to the E & V-Targets located at $540 - $560. This should be in motion if not complete by 12/20/23.
2. "Robert it go down." I think this is the most likely scenario. We fall to our NT-Target of ~$375 by 12/20/23. I think after this it is very likely big money starts adding some buy pressure, and we will revisit $500 soon(ish) after.