FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
269 18 8
As we can see on a weekly time frame, this pair is completing a cycle (low-to-low) trending slowly up within a channel. For trading purposes though, it is actually trending down. Currently this pair is in one of the strongest down trends of all the majors. The NZD is the weakest currency, while the USD is the strongest one. That's why I expect further continuation to the downside toward the lower border of the channel. However, a word of caution is necessary: There's a relatively strong support level at about 0.81, which happens to be both a multi-pivot line and a median line of a horizontal channel. I don't think this support is going to hold as much as 0.80 should, but buyers may be more active here.
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Disclaimer:
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex . I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.

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dojitrader
2 years ago
Looking at this myself today and was wondering what your thoughts are
for any potential resistance points to sell before the .8400 you have
lined on the chart? There seems to be several layers to deal with.
Hope your putting lots of pips in your pocket these days !!!!!!
Reply
ForceFollower
2 years ago
I'm not sure we've found the bottom yet. However, based on what there is now, I'd be looking to sell short and stay short as long as price holds below 0.8450. Above that level the short trade would be totally invalidated for me (like it is currently the case with GBPAUD! or EURAUD) and one should take a loss, no matter what. However, the odds are relatively high (based on my stats) that this level will not be exceeded before price makes another swing down. Now, of course the higher you sell, the more you can make, and the better your R:R will be, but also the higher the chance that you will miss the train :-) So, your best trade would be, if you entered it at 0.8420 - if price gets that far and the sellers step in, I'd sell short with a SL above 0.8450 - that's the ideal trade idea. Things should be also pretty bright, when you enter short at the Fib and pivot confluence level 0.8400.

As you requested the levels below 0.84, I'd keep an eye on: 0.8315 and 0.8235 - but here you have to accommodate trade size vs. risk and reward - either trade much smaller size for a smaller profit (but your risk stays the same) or place a tighter SL (with higher odds of being taken and turning it to a loss) but with a reasonable reward. It's a tough dilemma. I've tried both and I found that both are fine - but the latter seems to be more sound than the former. Why? Because when you choose a strategy that takes losses less often, sooner or later you may get into a loss-avoidance state of mind, which invariably results in taking a HUGE LOSS for all the avoided losses (plus the bill for... you know what... with the market :-) and more). It is always better to take a loss quickly, perhaps try again shorting it higher and, if failed again, then say "This market is freaking odd, I'm not going to waste my precious capital here" and move to another market. Otherwise you'll be trading not the capital but the capital leftovers. :-) This is why I find it best to predetermine two or perhaps three levels of entry and if failed not try again but just move on and recover the losses in other markets.

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PFTrader ForceFollower
2 years ago
I have been using a fork on the 4H on that downtrend
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PFTrader ForceFollower
2 years ago
snapshot
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PFTrader PFTrader
2 years ago
and on the 4H this fork with an eye on horizontal res
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PFTrader PFTrader
2 years ago
support I mean
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ForceFollower PFTrader
2 years ago
Very nice. Thanks for your charts.
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
I'm short again. Looking to TP at 0.8. :-)
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
u going to sell now to 0.8?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
I have sold it at about 0.81, seeing it break all the bull trend lines. I'm holding to it all the way down to 0.8.
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
Oooooh! I've closed my short position at 0.8, but it keeps going down. I should have left at least a small part of it running. Anyway, a very nice trade. :-)
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Good job force. I think usdjpy is on its bull to 110
+1 Reply
ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
USDJPY looks a bit correction-heavy. I'll be looking to go long again at about 108.4.
And I'll be looking to go short NZDUSD, AUDUSD & EURUSD again, but I don't know where & when yet.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
hmm 108.4? It is now stay above 109.2 which is 100 MA. I think 110 is approaching before any correction?
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ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
OK. perhaps 108.5. :-)
Well, I don't know for sure anything. Maybe it is on its way to 110, maybe not. All I know is that USDJPY has just ceased to be in the strongest trend, so I'm no longer so convinced it'll continue higher from this point on. But perhaps it will get there very soon. Definitely, it would be a bad idea to go short (not in my strategy at all); it is much better to bet on a long position. So if you're long, stay long.
Anyway, at the moment, I can see no trading opportunities with my strategy.
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Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
good i like this chart. at the other side, the kiwi looks bearish
+1 Reply
Sam0101 ForceFollower
2 years ago
Hey force, in this case u looking USDJPY will going to make a new high to 110?
Reply
ForceFollower Sam0101
2 years ago
I don't know. But I think it's possible. I'm long, looking to TP at 109 first.
Reply
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