Keep your SL tight if you are considering this S/T short opp . The larger timeframe remains , but at this lower level, one might be able to calibrate a way up.
Follow this chart as we move along, although I will also offer some updates on the more interesting and much larger timeframe.
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The idea here is the capture a downswing from the level I have highlighted. The background geometry here is that of a Wolfe Wave/Geo, and the regimen consists of a 5-point cycle. Completion of the cycle would occur NOT at Point-5, but at the rallying that one should expect once the target for this short opp is reached.
What we are riding now is a no-no method (really), as the 5-point geometry is most securely traded at the completion of Point-5, not Point-4. Still, I use other methods to share ideas that are lower-risk than average (I would otherwise not risk my neck here, as you can imagine).
So, let's see whether this near completion is sufficient enough to capture a precocious profit as we ride down, and perhaps capture the other final leg up.
A very important material change has occurred in the chart. Put simply, the original Geo has been invalidated by the recent adverse excursion wherein price carved out a a higher Point-4. What resulted was the expression of an internal, smaller geometry, as well as the reconfiguration of the larger geometry.
Overall, the targets remain intact, although, the higher high achieved suggests that attainment to 0.618-Fib is now less probable than 0.500.
What I have charted in dashed lines and colored squares are NOT a predicted pathway (I have never been able to remain consistently right on that). Instead, the purpose of drawing a dashed pathway is to highlight and keep a visual reminder of all levels, be it structural or geometrical, against which price is likely to encounter a hurdle or be pushed back. The yellow boxes are visual warning reminders, the GREEN box would suggest a short, and the red box are suggested exit - Not that most of the yellow box following a green would suggest a partial exit (I typically like a 80% exit and 20% follow-through) when going for lesser probability targets, but this remains entirely at the trader's discretion.
Note that the internal Geo completed its full geometric cycle, as it validated its 1-4 Line:
At this point, we are turning to the LARGER geometry, as it too achieved an important milestone, by defining its Point-5-prime (5'), as we will see in the next analyses. In the mean time, I will dim the internal geometry, as it will serve no further purpose going forward.