4xForecaster
Short

$USD v. $NZD Offers Near Complete Geo At Point-4 Opp | #forex

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
Friends,

Keep your SL tight if you are considering this S/T short opp             . The larger timeframe remains bullish , but at this lower level, one might be able to calibrate a way up.


snapshot


Follow this chart as we move along, although I will also offer some updates on the more interesting and much larger timeframe.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Tech-Note:

The idea here is the capture a downswing from the level I have highlighted. The background geometry here is that of a Wolfe Wave/Geo, and the regimen consists of a 5-point cycle. Completion of the cycle would occur NOT at Point-5, but at the rallying that one should expect once the target for this short opp is reached.

What we are riding now is a no-no method (really), as the 5-point geometry is most securely traded at the completion of Point-5, not Point-4. Still, I use other methods to share ideas that are lower-risk than average (I would otherwise not risk my neck here, as you can imagine).

So, let's see whether this near completion is sufficient enough to capture a precocious profit as we ride down, and perhaps capture the other final leg up.

Best,


David
+2 Reply
Tech-Note:

A prudent trader might wait for a line or geometric confirmation, such as the break below this line - See following illustration:

snapshot



In terms of geometry, peice escaping from this area would be a plus for the contemplative bear:

snapshot



D.
+2 Reply
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Here, for the conservatives:


snapshot



David
+3 Reply
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Ceding of 0.64329 would open floor to lowest target - See chart:


snapshot



David
+1 Reply
28 AUG 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

A very important material change has occurred in the chart. Put simply, the original Geo has been invalidated by the recent adverse excursion wherein price carved out a a higher Point-4. What resulted was the expression of an internal, smaller geometry, as well as the reconfiguration of the larger geometry.


snapshot



Overall, the targets remain intact, although, the higher high achieved suggests that attainment to 0.618-Fib is now less probable than 0.500.

What I have charted in dashed lines and colored squares are NOT a predicted pathway (I have never been able to remain consistently right on that). Instead, the purpose of drawing a dashed pathway is to highlight and keep a visual reminder of all levels, be it structural or geometrical, against which price is likely to encounter a hurdle or be pushed back. The yellow boxes are visual warning reminders, the GREEN box would suggest a short, and the red box are suggested exit - Not that most of the yellow box following a green would suggest a partial exit (I typically like a 80% exit and 20% follow-through) when going for lesser probability targets, but this remains entirely at the trader's discretion.


David
+3 Reply
bitsunrise 4xForecaster
a year ago
Another great one thanks for sharing it David!
+1 Reply
31 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD hit 50% #fibonacci target; Bears mulls 0.63349 target at 0.618-Fib:

snapshot


$NZD $USD #RBNZ #kiwi #forex
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
31 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:

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$NZDUSD - Follow-Up: Hit all bearish 3fibonacci targets:

snapshot


$NZD $USD #kiwi #usdollar #RBNZ #forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
31 AUG 2015 - Tech-Note:

Note that the internal Geo completed its full geometric cycle, as it validated its 1-4 Line:

snapshot



At this point, we are turning to the LARGER geometry, as it too achieved an important milestone, by defining its Point-5-prime (5'), as we will see in the next analyses. In the mean time, I will dim the internal geometry, as it will serve no further purpose going forward.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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