The first OPEC cuts made on April 2nd were 3.7% of global demand and all that did was shoot oil from $66 to $83 while killing almost ALL shorts but that move was very short and not lasting.
The most important level in this life long channel is the 2 green lines that equal to the 0.5 & 0.618 fib levels, we've been above these lines for months now and right before the OPEC cuts we were about to brake the .5 fib line which would have been catastrophic then bam the cuts were made to save the oil market. Now at this very moment the monthly will close under 0.618 and maybe .5, it hasn't been in-between these lines in such a long time, under a .5 fib close would be good for all oil bears. (The white arrows show the important channel I highlighted a part of the channel purple)
Now lets check past history on this fib channel and compare now to past performance. you can tell that every time we hit the bottom of the channel (0 on the fib) we had to hit 1 or minimum, the .5 - .618 channel.
Are you guys seeing this trend?
Now lets talk about 2020 to now.
2020 was covid so the spike down isn't odd at all but notice it never broke above .618 it kept hitting it knowing we weren't bullish on oil, anyways we jumped back up to re bound at 0 then rushing back to the channel of .5 to .618 we did the same thing (like 2006) before braking up to 1 we fell right back down to the channel to re test the strongest channel in oil history just to confirm channel support and rush back to 1 in 2022. And here we are months chilling on the channel just for no movement at all then a surprise OPEC cut to kill all shorts with a short term rebound to $83. With the monthly closing under .618 for sure and might even close under .5 fib.
Oh and last thing to note if anyone still reads to the ending.....
in 2008 the same thing happened, OPEC cut rates in September then again at the end of October just to watch oil die even more, copy paste the world never changes history repeats itself again and again. Now we just wait for the second OPEC cut or they just don't, we got one of them, we will just have to see.
thank you for reading.
The most important level in this life long channel is the 2 green lines that equal to the 0.5 & 0.618 fib levels, we've been above these lines for months now and right before the OPEC cuts we were about to brake the .5 fib line which would have been catastrophic then bam the cuts were made to save the oil market. Now at this very moment the monthly will close under 0.618 and maybe .5, it hasn't been in-between these lines in such a long time, under a .5 fib close would be good for all oil bears. (The white arrows show the important channel I highlighted a part of the channel purple)
Now lets check past history on this fib channel and compare now to past performance. you can tell that every time we hit the bottom of the channel (0 on the fib) we had to hit 1 or minimum, the .5 - .618 channel.
- (1990 - 1994) we had a top at the 1 fib then we fell and had to re test .5 to fall back to 0. After hitting 0 we jumped back to the .5 to fall under 0
- (1998 - 2001) we started under 0 to rush the oil market back to the .5 - .618 channel to FALL RIGHT BACK TO 0
- (2002 - 2006) we started a 0 to rush back to the channel ending 2002, we had a fall back to support but not 0 (the market was strong) then rose and rose but as you can see we broke the channel but couldn't go back to 1 because we NEEDED to test the most important channel aka .5 - .618 before running it to 1 ending 2006
- (2008) god bless Obama we rushed to the highest level in oil history just before a historic collapse down to where you ask? .5 - .618 channel!!!!!!!
- (2015 - 2016) we started 2015 in the channel to end it at 0
- (2016 - 2019) all we did in this time frame was jump from 0 to the .5 - .618 channel, we tested .5 many times the jumped above .618 to just glide on top of it for a few months ( still doesn't mean it broke because it didn't brake away from the line) just a grind on the channel this whole time. then we fell under to keep trying a .5 - .618 test
Are you guys seeing this trend?
Now lets talk about 2020 to now.
2020 was covid so the spike down isn't odd at all but notice it never broke above .618 it kept hitting it knowing we weren't bullish on oil, anyways we jumped back up to re bound at 0 then rushing back to the channel of .5 to .618 we did the same thing (like 2006) before braking up to 1 we fell right back down to the channel to re test the strongest channel in oil history just to confirm channel support and rush back to 1 in 2022. And here we are months chilling on the channel just for no movement at all then a surprise OPEC cut to kill all shorts with a short term rebound to $83. With the monthly closing under .618 for sure and might even close under .5 fib.
Oh and last thing to note if anyone still reads to the ending.....
in 2008 the same thing happened, OPEC cut rates in September then again at the end of October just to watch oil die even more, copy paste the world never changes history repeats itself again and again. Now we just wait for the second OPEC cut or they just don't, we got one of them, we will just have to see.
thank you for reading.
And here we are, a few days after this post and hanging under .618 and just above the .5 fib line, OPEC has a surprise emergency meeting. With no surprise to me the second cuts were made. Russia, Saudi, Nigeria & Angola all agree to cuts of additional 3.66 MLN BP with Saudi doing 1 million barrels per day alone in July.
We were waiting for the second announcement and here it is, we might see oil do the same thing as before when we jumped from $66 to $83 but we could only see the .618 fib line get touched and that would be it.
time will tell, good luck