Thank you for your time, goodbye.
But seriously, we have being going up for a while now, I think mainly due to supply issues, and after palladium became more expensive than gold , it has started to go parabolic.
We are pulling back now, right at that price that was gold complacency support.
I believe either the bubble will pop, or we are going to test gold all time high.
Now... If we go past gold all time high... Oh my. Brace yourselves, the FOMO herd is going to come stampeding.
Industrials NEED palladium, to build cars and other stuff doesn't even matter.
The sources are not exactly reliable: Russia and South Africa. that is it.
Everybody knows Russia, and you migh have heard South Africa was very uncertain...
If Russia ends up being the only source it's GG .
Right now the normy crowd could not care less, but if Palladium starts going into a mania, just wait and see how every one grandma asks about the white metal.
So I see 2 scenarios:
1- Industrials have been panic buying massively and we are going to end up with huge supply and no demand. Huge rapid crash.
2- South Africa will keep sinking into populism and banks nationalisation etc, Palladium demand will keep to rise, and at some point the mainstream FOMO crowd will hear about that precious metal that has been going up and up and up, and this time it will be different "Ye ok we messed up with Bitcoin but Palladium is a real metal and it is actually used in cars and very valuable and scarce so it is impossible we are wrong this time." Once the FOMO crows gets it, enjoy daytrading this +30% in 1 day...
Either way, probably going to be fun. Be ready. Keep your eyes on this before anyone else.
And remember, no matter how many hundreds of times the mainstream crowd was wrong, this time it WILL be different, they are 100% certain of it.
- Mark Karpelès, master troll.
Of course Palladium will go down eventually. But not until the automotive industry switches to a different composition to meet the new stricter emissions regulations (not possible within the next 18 months) or they bear the brunt of the price increase until electric car demand takes over (note that hybrids require Palladium as well) which is a longer time frame than that. Or possibly either the price increase makes the mining of Palladium profitable as a primary source rather than as a by product or a new undiscovered mine with vast resources of a Palladium is discovered (extremely unlikely).
The motoring industry which drives this price has had 6+ years to prepare for this moment but decided to do nothing. As a result they have their hands tied in a “perfect storm” scenario.
The current price rise is not due to stock piling, there is not enough Palladium around to stockpile for any reasonable duration. The price rise is driven from an increased demand for Palladium due to the emission regulations, car buyers switching from diesel to petrol engined cars as well as ETFs no longer releasing stock to fill the gap. The main source of any potential stockpile is from the ETFs and they only have ~1years worth of equivalent demand. The ETFs are unlikely to release any more Palladium and are more probable to buy back (if they haven’t already) more Palladium as they have to have physical Palladium stock to cover their investors. This means the difference between supply and demand has switched from being slightly too small to significantly too small. Thus giving the current rate of rise in Palladium’s price.
Palladium will not drop this year and is only potentially going to start to drop towards the end of next year depending on how the auto industry as a whole decides to address this issue.
Gold and Palladium are different markets. Palladium’s price is driven as a commercial product. It’s price is driven primarily through supply and demand for its commercial use with general trading only affecting day-to-day fluctuations. Gold’s price, although used in jewellery, is driven by financial economics and confidence in the stock market. This is why the price charts for the two are so different.
Yes gold and palladium have 0 correlation, that palladium has trailed gold from 2005 to 2011 or retraced on the exact gold historical support of 1550$ per once or that paladdium went parapolic the moment its price got higher than gold, are all coincidences.
It is impossible for this to stop going up, and if it turns into a huge bubble +500% or more the people that got in in 2018-2019 were wise visionaries and not 100% lucky.