PANW has traded in a boring range since I last posted my original idea (linked below). Here are the dynamics that have unfolded, and my forecast from here:
- The main factor we need to determine is if the recent consolidation is accumulation or re-distribution (I'm leaning toward re-distribution with a UTAD upcoming - meaning one more pop before major drop).
- There is a ton of overhanging supply, but at the same time a major gap above to fill
- Overall market is nearing a top (but still some gas left in the tank), so if we assume PANW won't completely disregard the rest of the market, then the re-distribution with a UTAD scenario makes sense (for traders this means swing long currently, and then swing short based on
my updated forecast, below)
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Forecast/Predicted price action:
A) Needs to clear 281.71 to give a new signal to enter long (I want to see a close above that level this week). If it gets rejected again at 281.71 then it will see another pullback along the thick red arrow on chart.
B) If we clear 281.71 then it will test 287.79 minimum, so I'll be looking at Apr 26 285 or 286 calls. Once it tests 287.79, I'll sell half of my calls ITM and then wait for the major test (i.e. rejection at 287-288 or breakout above that level)
- If rejected then I will exit remaining calls but not switch to puts just yet, would need more confirmation. It would likely pullback along the 1pt red arrow if rejected
- if breaks above then I will hold my calls for target scenario (C)
C) If we get to scenario (B) and get the breakout above 287.79, then I'm expecting continuation higher to 298 - 300 (my initial target = 299.20 by 4/19/2024).
- after it hits initial target then it will pullback to retest 287-288 for support before making one final run into the 300s. Don't short until this makes it into 300s to test the gap. It will crash later in 2024 so shorts will have their day soon. I'll send an update once this makes it to 299, but until then I gave you everything you need to trade this.
~Not financial advice. I'm not currently in a position, but will enter calls if we get the sustained break (or close) above 281.79.
- The main factor we need to determine is if the recent consolidation is accumulation or re-distribution (I'm leaning toward re-distribution with a UTAD upcoming - meaning one more pop before major drop).
- There is a ton of overhanging supply, but at the same time a major gap above to fill
- Overall market is nearing a top (but still some gas left in the tank), so if we assume PANW won't completely disregard the rest of the market, then the re-distribution with a UTAD scenario makes sense (for traders this means swing long currently, and then swing short based on
my updated forecast, below)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Forecast/Predicted price action:
A) Needs to clear 281.71 to give a new signal to enter long (I want to see a close above that level this week). If it gets rejected again at 281.71 then it will see another pullback along the thick red arrow on chart.
B) If we clear 281.71 then it will test 287.79 minimum, so I'll be looking at Apr 26 285 or 286 calls. Once it tests 287.79, I'll sell half of my calls ITM and then wait for the major test (i.e. rejection at 287-288 or breakout above that level)
- If rejected then I will exit remaining calls but not switch to puts just yet, would need more confirmation. It would likely pullback along the 1pt red arrow if rejected
- if breaks above then I will hold my calls for target scenario (C)
C) If we get to scenario (B) and get the breakout above 287.79, then I'm expecting continuation higher to 298 - 300 (my initial target = 299.20 by 4/19/2024).
- after it hits initial target then it will pullback to retest 287-288 for support before making one final run into the 300s. Don't short until this makes it into 300s to test the gap. It will crash later in 2024 so shorts will have their day soon. I'll send an update once this makes it to 299, but until then I gave you everything you need to trade this.
~Not financial advice. I'm not currently in a position, but will enter calls if we get the sustained break (or close) above 281.79.
Comment:
Got the close above 281.79. Looking to enter calls tomorrow if we get a pullback to retest 281.79 for support. If it gaps up it won't come back down (sometimes that's the way it goes).
