My analysis today is an update to my last analysis from the current trending "PEPE / MEMECOINS".
> Due to the sudden price explosion, many addresses are sitting on extreme profits, which could flood the market with your positions at the slightest hint of weakness.
> In the following analysis I highlight a LONG and a SHORT scenario, where I focused on the technical KEY-Points, which will be relevant in the next view days.
PEPE INSIGHT
> PEPE cryptocurrency originated from the world of internet memes, where Pepe the Frog gained immense popularity as a versatile and humorous character.
> The creators of PEPE envisioned a unique digital asset that would bridge the gap between the meme culture and the blockchain community.
> Built on a decentralized blockchain network, PEPE aims to establish itself as a vibrant ecosystem for memetic content, digital art, and collectibles.
I don't want to go into much detail about the history of the coin, or its past chart, as there is not enough past data for that.
Depending on the HYPE and the big addresses, the price can still go up - but you can already see signs of weakness in the volume, which could trigger a rapid sell-off.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT & LONG
4H – OVERVIEW – Without Scenarios
1H – OVERVIEW – Without Scenarios
1H – LONG - Scenario
1H – SHORT - Scenario
Should this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you and a successful trading!
> Due to the sudden price explosion, many addresses are sitting on extreme profits, which could flood the market with your positions at the slightest hint of weakness.
> In the following analysis I highlight a LONG and a SHORT scenario, where I focused on the technical KEY-Points, which will be relevant in the next view days.
PEPE INSIGHT
> PEPE cryptocurrency originated from the world of internet memes, where Pepe the Frog gained immense popularity as a versatile and humorous character.
> The creators of PEPE envisioned a unique digital asset that would bridge the gap between the meme culture and the blockchain community.
> Built on a decentralized blockchain network, PEPE aims to establish itself as a vibrant ecosystem for memetic content, digital art, and collectibles.
I don't want to go into much detail about the history of the coin, or its past chart, as there is not enough past data for that.
Depending on the HYPE and the big addresses, the price can still go up - but you can already see signs of weakness in the volume, which could trigger a rapid sell-off.
> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT & LONG
4H – OVERVIEW – Without Scenarios
1H – OVERVIEW – Without Scenarios
1H – LONG - Scenario
1H – SHORT - Scenario
Should this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea.
Thank you and a successful trading!
Trade active:
I risk an early LONG with tight SL and small position size.
- the weekend liquidity does not allow a meaningful forecast
- my decision is pure speculation
Good luck and have a nice weekend!
- the weekend liquidity does not allow a meaningful forecast
- my decision is pure speculation
Good luck and have a nice weekend!
Comment:
Possible High Risk Set-Ups,
for the chart shown before = including ENTRY + SL < DYOR
> Don't follow these when you aren't experienced / can't manage risk
> Not Set&Forget - only short term reactions
for the chart shown before = including ENTRY + SL < DYOR
> Don't follow these when you aren't experienced / can't manage risk
> Not Set&Forget - only short term reactions
Comment:
ENTRY 2 (ET 2) = got successfully triggered
and you could add to your position / get your first entry.
The blue "range" box got respected to the current moment, but we’ll face the transition volatility, which occurs from weekend to weekdays (Monday Volatility).
For everyone who is on the ride, I can only warn again, to have a tight SL / when the position size is small and the risk is known - a wide one.
> we could see some SL hunts before we continue in one direction
and you could add to your position / get your first entry.
The blue "range" box got respected to the current moment, but we’ll face the transition volatility, which occurs from weekend to weekdays (Monday Volatility).
For everyone who is on the ride, I can only warn again, to have a tight SL / when the position size is small and the risk is known - a wide one.
> we could see some SL hunts before we continue in one direction
Comment:
ENTRY 3 (ET 3) = got successfully triggered
and you could add to your position / get your second entry.
> The 0.786er FIB got respected since the first touch (candle close).
> The price is in a collective of DEMAND Zones | Daily, 4h + 3h Zones.
> The 1h MACD looks like it wants to cross | The 15m MACD shows a divergence.
Dependent on the incoming volume and interest, we can still see a build up for momentum before the course could go up.
= currently it shows strength, and the location is a “strong” support zone
and you could add to your position / get your second entry.
> The 0.786er FIB got respected since the first touch (candle close).
> The price is in a collective of DEMAND Zones | Daily, 4h + 3h Zones.
> The 1h MACD looks like it wants to cross | The 15m MACD shows a divergence.
Dependent on the incoming volume and interest, we can still see a build up for momentum before the course could go up.
= currently it shows strength, and the location is a “strong” support zone
Comment:
Since the last update, the course worked through the 0.88 FIB and reacted on the before drawn in DEMAND ZONE | 4h – with success.
> The reaction was exactly on the PIP / which leads us to MarketMaker (MM) involvement.
So let’s see what the next few hours bring us:
> BTC is pushing but will face in short a strong resistance (a hard decline would be bad for a LONG thesis)
> The 1h MACD cross comes closer and the divergence on the 15m played out
> The reaction was exactly on the PIP / which leads us to MarketMaker (MM) involvement.
So let’s see what the next few hours bring us:
> BTC is pushing but will face in short a strong resistance (a hard decline would be bad for a LONG thesis)
> The 1h MACD cross comes closer and the divergence on the 15m played out
Trade active:
After the Price-Action looked more and more weak, I decided to close my LONG fully and entered now a SHORT.
> We are currently in a RANGE, which need to get broken (confirmed) to go further down.
> The 4h +3h DEMAND Zones are already weak from the range Bottom, because the got tested before and the market does’t shown a reaction to the otherside of the range.
> The MACD shows still a Bullish Divergence, but this doesn’t mean always a Bullish Push up.
> We are currently in a RANGE, which need to get broken (confirmed) to go further down.
> The 4h +3h DEMAND Zones are already weak from the range Bottom, because the got tested before and the market does’t shown a reaction to the otherside of the range.
> The MACD shows still a Bullish Divergence, but this doesn’t mean always a Bullish Push up.
Comment:
My previously planed SHORT comes now in action.
> Dependent on BTC, which is currently under heavy selling preasure - PEPE will follow.
> PEPE should follow even stronger, because the PEPE participants are more RETAIL investors then in other coins = BTC falls = more FEAR then someone else in the market
So let's see how BTC performs, if it can break further through the ground, then we see the expected sell-off in PEPE.
> I'll update later the chart, but the previosly drawn SWING ZONE must break
> Dependent on BTC, which is currently under heavy selling preasure - PEPE will follow.
> PEPE should follow even stronger, because the PEPE participants are more RETAIL investors then in other coins = BTC falls = more FEAR then someone else in the market
So let's see how BTC performs, if it can break further through the ground, then we see the expected sell-off in PEPE.
> I'll update later the chart, but the previosly drawn SWING ZONE must break
Comment:
Possible direction after break through of the SWING Channel, including back-test!
Bearish = Head & Shoulder | Formation
Bearish = Head & Shoulder | Formation
Comment:
The breakout of the SWING RANGE has occurred and is currently in the confirmation phase.
- Should the RANGE be recaptured and confirmed, one could enter a LONG.
- However, it is more likely that the RANGE bottom with candlestick close will be confirmed as resistance and thus the further down-sale will take place.
Here you can see possible key levels and look at the chart once normal and inverted.
- inverted serves as a counter-confirmation, and I can only recommend this method for verification.
NORMAL
INVERTED
- Should the RANGE be recaptured and confirmed, one could enter a LONG.
- However, it is more likely that the RANGE bottom with candlestick close will be confirmed as resistance and thus the further down-sale will take place.
Here you can see possible key levels and look at the chart once normal and inverted.
- inverted serves as a counter-confirmation, and I can only recommend this method for verification.
NORMAL
INVERTED
Comment:
The last UPDATE filled its prediction, and we saw a strong Sell-Off, combined with BTC (CRYPTO).
The "Head & Shoulders" Breakout target don't got reached till now, but I'm sure that after enough liquidity got collected, we will see another push down.
IMPORTANT
= Even when the future predicts further downside, take profits (realize them). You never know when something unexpected happen, then the situation can turn 180 degrees in seconds.
Still hold on after you minimized your risk - I think that this SHORT will last way longer than you expect.
The "Head & Shoulders" Breakout target don't got reached till now, but I'm sure that after enough liquidity got collected, we will see another push down.
IMPORTANT
= Even when the future predicts further downside, take profits (realize them). You never know when something unexpected happen, then the situation can turn 180 degrees in seconds.
Still hold on after you minimized your risk - I think that this SHORT will last way longer than you expect.
Trade active:
After the price is still deciding in which direction it should go further - I have expanded my position size a little bit / with sharp SL.
> BTC looks as if he would correct SHORT term further = if necessary, the existing correction continues to expand.
> The additional selling pressure coming from BTC could push PEPE even further down.
> BTC looks as if he would correct SHORT term further = if necessary, the existing correction continues to expand.
> The additional selling pressure coming from BTC could push PEPE even further down.
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
We are currently in a RANGE, which needs to be broken up or down, effectively (with confirmation).
Despite the uncertainty, there are initial signs which suggest a possible sell-off.
> In the last 24 hours, there were 2 SHORT ENGULFING almost consecutively, which speak for a further sell-off.
Therefore, it is important to pay attention now and prepare for both scenarios if necessary.
RANGE - 4H
ENGULFING - 4H
Despite the uncertainty, there are initial signs which suggest a possible sell-off.
> In the last 24 hours, there were 2 SHORT ENGULFING almost consecutively, which speak for a further sell-off.
Therefore, it is important to pay attention now and prepare for both scenarios if necessary.
RANGE - 4H
ENGULFING - 4H
Trade active:
Short Position is activated:
Comment:
After building enough momentum, the first down-sale was initiated.
Comment:
We created in the Lower Timeframe a - Lower Low - and continued the DOWNSIDE MOVE from the last update.
> After that we broke through the "HTF - Trendchannel - Midline" and confirmed on the LTF the validation for the current moment.
> Dependent on DXY (USD) and BTC, that confirmation is enough and we'll see further downside.
> If the DXY deside to go down (Bearish - Divergenz on the LTF), then we could see a little - UP MOVE - in here.
1 H - TF | TREND CHANNEL - MID BACKTEST
1 H - TF | SCENARIOS
4 H - TF | LEVEL OVERVIEW
> After that we broke through the "HTF - Trendchannel - Midline" and confirmed on the LTF the validation for the current moment.
> Dependent on DXY (USD) and BTC, that confirmation is enough and we'll see further downside.
> If the DXY deside to go down (Bearish - Divergenz on the LTF), then we could see a little - UP MOVE - in here.
1 H - TF | TREND CHANNEL - MID BACKTEST
1 H - TF | SCENARIOS
4 H - TF | LEVEL OVERVIEW
Trade active:
We could see a little upwards move - the 1h MACD shows some strength.
- maybe it's a bit early, but I'll risk an early LONG
- wide SL / small position size
There is still a big possibility, that this is not the LL, but the DXY shows weakness, which would result in a "recovering" BTC / PEPE.
> small move, but free %
- maybe it's a bit early, but I'll risk an early LONG
- wide SL / small position size
There is still a big possibility, that this is not the LL, but the DXY shows weakness, which would result in a "recovering" BTC / PEPE.
> small move, but free %
Order cancelled:
JOLTS Job Openings resulted POSITIVE, which is positive for the USD.
= DXY goes up / pressure for the rest goes up = they Drop
How long the market see this as relevant I can not say now, but we need to wait for more clear bias.
= DXY goes up / pressure for the rest goes up = they Drop
How long the market see this as relevant I can not say now, but we need to wait for more clear bias.
Trade active:
Dual, with my BTC IDEA yesterday - I had speculated on a short term bottom, which has expanded overnight.
> BTC finds bottom = PEPE finds bottom
BTC IDEA (UPDATED)
> BTC finds bottom = PEPE finds bottom
BTC IDEA (UPDATED)
Comment:
The DXY (USD index) is pushing BTC = PEPE down quite a bit right now, despite the fact that the DXY's momentum is consistently going down, it has not given up its position yet.
In the following chart, you can see the DXY as it is above its formed RANGE.
> If the PEPE LONG is to work, the DXY must re-enter the trend channel, confirm it, break through at the bottom, confirm again and then sell off.
Therefore, if you are thinking about taking a position, keep an eye on the Range and the DXY.
In the following chart, you can see the DXY as it is above its formed RANGE.
> If the PEPE LONG is to work, the DXY must re-enter the trend channel, confirm it, break through at the bottom, confirm again and then sell off.
Therefore, if you are thinking about taking a position, keep an eye on the Range and the DXY.
Comment:
The RANGE in the DXY is broken = now there is not much in the way of the rise.
> THESE / LONG
> THESE / LONG
Comment:
The DXY sits now on a strong FIB Level support, and we should see a bounce from here.
= Pressure for all markets
= Pressure for all markets
Comment:
The DXY followed the reaction marked in blue and must now soon show a first strong counter-reaction to the down-sale.
Hitting a strong support zone:
> DAILY - DEMAND ZONE
> 0.75; 0.786 + 0.88 FIBONACCIS
> STRONG SELL WITHOUT CORRECTIVE PASSAGE
= market makers need liquidity again
Hitting a strong support zone:
> DAILY - DEMAND ZONE
> 0.75; 0.786 + 0.88 FIBONACCIS
> STRONG SELL WITHOUT CORRECTIVE PASSAGE
= market makers need liquidity again
Comment:
BTC and PEPE don't care about the re-bounce happening in the DXY.
> That is a really strong sign, which should lead us to some upside over the weekend
> The DXY come back to the RANGE and we will see if it can hold this, or stays as a resistance.
> That is a really strong sign, which should lead us to some upside over the weekend
> The DXY come back to the RANGE and we will see if it can hold this, or stays as a resistance.
Comment:
Now that we have "WEEKEND - PRICE ACTION", we should see fewer movements in the market.
Per tradition, there occur normally "FAKE PUMPS", which don't have any reason - but are good opportunities to - Take Away - some profits.
In the charts are all - ZONES - which will be important over the weekend (if NO NEW - Lower Low - will be created).
> The VIOLET ZONES are TARGET ZONES (= Take Profit points)
> Good Luck and Happy Trading!
1 H - TF | DIRECTION
1 H - TF | OVERVIEW
4 H - TF | OVERVIEW
Per tradition, there occur normally "FAKE PUMPS", which don't have any reason - but are good opportunities to - Take Away - some profits.
In the charts are all - ZONES - which will be important over the weekend (if NO NEW - Lower Low - will be created).
> The VIOLET ZONES are TARGET ZONES (= Take Profit points)
> Good Luck and Happy Trading!
1 H - TF | DIRECTION
1 H - TF | OVERVIEW
4 H - TF | OVERVIEW
Trade active:
I'm shorting PEPE with a small position - the momentum is missing and there is no DEMAND ZONE left, which could give support.
- SL is set over the DAILY SUPPLY Zone
- SL is set over the DAILY SUPPLY Zone
Comment:
Order cancelled:
With the new move, the SEC against BINANCE, the correlation with traditional markets no longer works for now.
The SEC accuses Binance of embezzlement, which has strong consequences for the crypto market.
> For this reason, we have to wait and see for now, as any news is immediately priced into the market = regardless of whether NEGATIVE / POSITIVE, which makes the current trade in the crypto segment very unpredictable.
In an article by "BTC-Echo", the state of affairs was summarized quite nicely, so I will quote the most relevant points.
QUOTE
> According to a new letter from the District Court of Columbia, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) accuses crypto exchange Binance of misusing funds and lying to regulators.
> According to the SEC, the world's largest crypto exchange commingled billions of dollars in customer funds with its own assets and secretly transferred them to a separate company controlled by Binance founder, Changpeng Zhao (CZ).
> The court filing lists Binance Holdings Limited (Binance), BAM Trading Services Inc, BAM Management US Holdings Inc, and the company's founder, Changpeng Zhao himself.
> In addition, the SEC defines the cryptocurrencies Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Cosmos (ATOM), Cardano (ADA), Polygon (MATIC), and other altcoins such as Decentraland (MANA) and Sandbox (SAND) as securities, among others, in this recent letter.
www.btc-echo.de/schl...veruntreuung-165537/
The SEC accuses Binance of embezzlement, which has strong consequences for the crypto market.
> For this reason, we have to wait and see for now, as any news is immediately priced into the market = regardless of whether NEGATIVE / POSITIVE, which makes the current trade in the crypto segment very unpredictable.
In an article by "BTC-Echo", the state of affairs was summarized quite nicely, so I will quote the most relevant points.
QUOTE
> According to a new letter from the District Court of Columbia, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) accuses crypto exchange Binance of misusing funds and lying to regulators.
> According to the SEC, the world's largest crypto exchange commingled billions of dollars in customer funds with its own assets and secretly transferred them to a separate company controlled by Binance founder, Changpeng Zhao (CZ).
> The court filing lists Binance Holdings Limited (Binance), BAM Trading Services Inc, BAM Management US Holdings Inc, and the company's founder, Changpeng Zhao himself.
> In addition, the SEC defines the cryptocurrencies Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Cosmos (ATOM), Cardano (ADA), Polygon (MATIC), and other altcoins such as Decentraland (MANA) and Sandbox (SAND) as securities, among others, in this recent letter.
www.btc-echo.de/schl...veruntreuung-165537/
the share price has gained to its high - almost 26%.
From a short-term perspective, you can see where possible entries can be made in the following chart: