Palantir - It's time to call a turd a turd.
I love me some Palantir. Seriously. But it's becoming rather obvious there are far more people who disagree with me than agree with me. The charts show this clearly. As you can see on the latest bearish pattern (there are no shortage of these for PLTR, by the way) that there is a rather clear ascending triangle pattern. This is to be considered a continuation pattern, and sure enough it continued downward. I took the height of the pattern and projected it downward and arrived at about $9.13. The all time low close is very close to this around $9.03.
There is almost zero reason to think that the price won't continue descending to these points. The latest earnings report had some bad mojo in some spots, but overall I was pretty pleased with it..... other than Alex Karp isn't a very good orator and is very difficult to follow. Mr. Market wasn't happy with the report. At all. Mr. Market seems to hate a LOT of things right now. Until he turns less grumpy I don't think there is any reason to go long on almost anything.
Seriously.
Once the macro headwinds turn into tailwinds, I fully expect PLTR to rebound strongly and outpace the indexes themselves as it returns back to $25-$28. When will this happen? No idea, but we're almost certainly going to have to wait at least another 3 months. It's the bulls turn to go into hibernation and wait for the bears to finish with their temper tantrum.
If you have a very long timeline, say 5+ years, you can buy PLTR at almost any price right now and you'll come out way ahead. I think institutions are already piling into this thing, but they don't chase price - they wait for it to come to them. So as it continues to descend I expect more and more will be bought up (accumulation) as the institutions replenish their cupboards. Then there will be a "test" of the low.....as they test out market conditions. Eventually they'll control enough inventory as all of the selling pressure will have been absorbed, and there's only one way left to go. This is the classic "weak hands transferring to strong hands" scenario and the pros are very good at it.
There may be a dramatic short squeeze along the way where price skyrockets irrationally, but I don't think there's any chance of that happening until we have hit $9.00 and shorts start to take profits. For the immediate/near term, assume any bullish rebounds will be sold off and flag back downward as has happened countless times now.
There is almost zero reason to think that the price won't continue descending to these points. The latest earnings report had some bad mojo in some spots, but overall I was pretty pleased with it..... other than Alex Karp isn't a very good orator and is very difficult to follow. Mr. Market wasn't happy with the report. At all. Mr. Market seems to hate a LOT of things right now. Until he turns less grumpy I don't think there is any reason to go long on almost anything.
Seriously.
Once the macro headwinds turn into tailwinds, I fully expect PLTR to rebound strongly and outpace the indexes themselves as it returns back to $25-$28. When will this happen? No idea, but we're almost certainly going to have to wait at least another 3 months. It's the bulls turn to go into hibernation and wait for the bears to finish with their temper tantrum.
If you have a very long timeline, say 5+ years, you can buy PLTR at almost any price right now and you'll come out way ahead. I think institutions are already piling into this thing, but they don't chase price - they wait for it to come to them. So as it continues to descend I expect more and more will be bought up (accumulation) as the institutions replenish their cupboards. Then there will be a "test" of the low.....as they test out market conditions. Eventually they'll control enough inventory as all of the selling pressure will have been absorbed, and there's only one way left to go. This is the classic "weak hands transferring to strong hands" scenario and the pros are very good at it.
There may be a dramatic short squeeze along the way where price skyrockets irrationally, but I don't think there's any chance of that happening until we have hit $9.00 and shorts start to take profits. For the immediate/near term, assume any bullish rebounds will be sold off and flag back downward as has happened countless times now.
Comment:
No sooner than I posted this and the turd had a 13% day. I'm not changing my bearish stance just yet. But if it has another strong day tomorrow I probably will, because I really can imagine a short squeeze causing this thing to go all Gamestop. Well, maybe not quite like GME, but you get my point. Still short PLTR because I haven't seen them throw up two very strong consecutive candles in a longass time.
Trade active:
Still in trade. I think this software sector got hit with some massive headwinds the last few days. Less to do with Palantir itself in my opinion, and more to do with the sector just getting blasted. Other software companies I watch like Snowflake, Unity, and Roblox have all gotten hammered recently.
Trade closed: target reached:
Holy hell PLTR got nuked today at earnings. It may go lower, but I think it's a coin flip at the current price point. I can definitely see people loading up on it after a 22% drop today.