A sharp (vertical) drop in the RSI (9) on the Put Write index has not been kind to the SPY (purple line). Pretty consistent forecaster. More downside ahead it it looks. So the first episode took us from 447.57 to 362.17, or -19%; the second episode went from 417.23 to 348.11, or -16.6%; a 15% drop from 2/15/23 would take our current leg to 351.95 around mid April.