Hello friends. The housing market hasn't crashed *yet*, but it's about to! It's interesting to see that we had a bubble pop in Crypto, NFTS, Growth Stocks, Tech Stocks, and many other asset classes within the past couple years. The main theory is that all the new money created by the FED has allowed for prices to rise dramatically which leads to speculation which leads to even higher prices. The cycle goes on until reality sets in and the bubble bursts. Today I am here to tell you that the Music Has Stopped Playing; The bubble has burst.
The US dollar bubble is over. The US stock market bubble is over. The US real estate bubble is over. Do you see the trend yet?! The world in 10 years will look very very different from the world today. The US will likely not be the world leader anymore.
You may wonder, ""Why In The World Would The Housing Bubble Ever Pop???"", or you may even think ""We aRe NoT In A BuBBlE1!111!1"". Perhaps you think that "HouSinG will AlWayS Go Up1!!1111!". Whichever of these moon boys you cosplay as, you are easily proven wrong. House prices went along with other commodity prices as they rose dramatically due in large part to ungodly amounts of speculation. Based on Elliott Wave analysis combined with fundamental analysis, commodity prices have nearly peaked, and housing prices have *already* peaked.
What happens to the bubble riders when to their chagrin:
Interest rates rise, making it harder for bubble boys to leverage to the tits and buy real estate that they could never in 1000 years afford with their own money
Capital becomes more expensive due to deletion of wealth, forcing the Landlords to lower their rent prices or else face difficulty in finding a tenent
Inflation falls dramatically -- Kalshi predicts that the most likely 2022 annual CPI inflation for the US will be 5.0-5.9%, which is a rapid drop from the current year over year inflation of 8.3%. (I personally expect annual CPI to be even lower)
The economy enters a recession (halfway there already!) -- The odds of a recession by 2022 Q2 are 95% according to Kalshi!!
Housing production starts to ramp up, and supply once again increases
So now Hoomer, you can either choose to sell your home now, for a wild price, or you can wait and sell it to me for a bargain later. Some wise Hoomers may also decide to hedge their homes by shorting house ETFs. I myself will be loading up on some puts on these "REIT" ETFS, to hold for the long term.
The US dollar bubble is over. The US stock market bubble is over. The US real estate bubble is over. Do you see the trend yet?! The world in 10 years will look very very different from the world today. The US will likely not be the world leader anymore.
You may wonder, ""Why In The World Would The Housing Bubble Ever Pop???"", or you may even think ""We aRe NoT In A BuBBlE1!111!1"". Perhaps you think that "HouSinG will AlWayS Go Up1!!1111!". Whichever of these moon boys you cosplay as, you are easily proven wrong. House prices went along with other commodity prices as they rose dramatically due in large part to ungodly amounts of speculation. Based on Elliott Wave analysis combined with fundamental analysis, commodity prices have nearly peaked, and housing prices have *already* peaked.
What happens to the bubble riders when to their chagrin:
Interest rates rise, making it harder for bubble boys to leverage to the tits and buy real estate that they could never in 1000 years afford with their own money
Capital becomes more expensive due to deletion of wealth, forcing the Landlords to lower their rent prices or else face difficulty in finding a tenent
Inflation falls dramatically -- Kalshi predicts that the most likely 2022 annual CPI inflation for the US will be 5.0-5.9%, which is a rapid drop from the current year over year inflation of 8.3%. (I personally expect annual CPI to be even lower)
The economy enters a recession (halfway there already!) -- The odds of a recession by 2022 Q2 are 95% according to Kalshi!!
Housing production starts to ramp up, and supply once again increases
So now Hoomer, you can either choose to sell your home now, for a wild price, or you can wait and sell it to me for a bargain later. Some wise Hoomers may also decide to hedge their homes by shorting house ETFs. I myself will be loading up on some puts on these "REIT" ETFS, to hold for the long term.