Rivian Update: No good rotten day

BATS:RIVN   Rivian Automotive
Today was not a good day for Rivian to say the least. Maybe, looking back with hindsight, I should've seen this coming. We never hit the 1.0 extension @ $13.07 and that is normally a must have for me. Given all the other signals Rivian was given I chose to chalk this up as one of the rare times the 1.0 wouldn't get hit. We had and still do have major positive divergence despite this hard drop, the micros seemed to be behaving as one would expect for a move higher, price was bouncing around the larger 0.236 extension & in between the 0.618-0.786 retracement fibs. However, we still hadn't hit that 1.0. Then within 1hr of the earnings report, over 2M shares had traded hands and down price went.

Well due to all this volatility, we finally hit that elusive 1.0 extension. Somehow, even with the strength of this fall, MACD maintained on the larger timeframes. The question we're all asking now, how low does this thing go? Unfortunately, I can't give that answer right now, but the 1.0 is a very common end point. Those of you that had commented today saying price is going here or there, I encourage you to share with the others how you came to that conclusion. Rather it be different indicators or fibs, it would be nice to know how you came to your conclusions. As of now, the medium and micro counts are obviously busted, and this is a deep retrace for the larger count.

According to EWT guidelines, this structure has met all the needed parts to be considered complete. I think it could still easily need another slight low to complete this last move down and bottom on neg div within the micros. It is possible for B waves to extend below the origination of A waves, but for obvious reasons I would prefer that not to happen. Again, if you feel strongly that it will move sub $11.68, I encourage you to post that with evidence and not just feelings. Feelings are obviously running strong right now with people either feeling justified or defeated.

With this recent drop, it lowers the larger target for wave (C) to $30.99-$43.56. How long it takes us to get there idk. As long as this count stays intact the end target remains in that area. The lower this count moves the lower that target moves too as long as the count stays intact. MACD gives no inclination the larger count will invalidate, and if anything, verifies this is C of (B) as MACD didn't make a new low. Only time will tell though, after today I wouldn't be surprised if we will get some kind of a retrace tomorrow. If we get a decent one, I may trim some shares to then pick them back up at a lower price. If we don't, I will continue to hold for now. I'm going to be very busy tomorrow so idk how closely I will be able to watch the markets, but if I make any trades, I will post them on here.

Don't forget, beginning February 23rd (this Friday), I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post / update will be on that day.

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Bonam Fortunam,

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