Keep it Easy SGDJPY long will make new record Highs
In Singapore a slight majority of analysts expected a 6th consecutive tightening move by MAS in order to tackle inflation, so the pause along with the conservative MAS statement on the inflation outlook saw a weakening of the S$.
- Gold extended gains amid USD weakness; The US dollar index is testing one year lows at 100.78 during the morning.
- Nikkei outperforms on results from big component Fast Retailing.
But vs JPY nearly every currency is making higher highs. As trader,I focus just on technicals.
Higher Highs Higher Lows!
Trend is bllish!
SG Dollar to Yen forecast by day.
Date Weekday Min Max Rate
04/07 Tuesday 105.82 109.04 107.43
05/07 Wednesday 105.85 109.07 107.46
06/07 Thursday 105.83 109.05 107.44
07/07 Friday 105.79 109.01 107.40
10/07 Monday 106.55 109.79 108.17
11/07 Tuesday 106.30 109.54 107.92
12/07 Wednesday 106.16 109.40 107.78
13/07 Thursday 106.72 109.98 108.35
14/07 Friday 107.35 110.61 108.98
17/07 Monday 106.71 109.97 108.34
18/07 Tuesday 106.46 109.70 108.08
19/07 Wednesday 107.64 110.92 109.28
20/07 Thursday 108.22 111.52 109.87
21/07 Friday 108.14 111.44 109.79
24/07 Monday 108.73 112.05 110.39
25/07 Tuesday 108.90 112.22 110.56
26/07 Wednesday 109.20 112.52 110.86
27/07 Thursday 108.72 112.04 110.38
28/07 Friday 109.09 112.41 110.75
31/07 Monday 109.21 112.53 110.87
01/08 Tuesday 108.95 112.27 110.61
02/08 Wednesday 109.68 113.02 111.35
03/08 Thursday 109.66 113.00 111.33
04/08 Friday 109.13 112.45 110.79
- Gold extended gains amid USD weakness; The US dollar index is testing one year lows at 100.78 during the morning.
- Nikkei outperforms on results from big component Fast Retailing.
But vs JPY nearly every currency is making higher highs. As trader,I focus just on technicals.
Higher Highs Higher Lows!
Trend is bllish!
SG Dollar to Yen forecast by day.
Date Weekday Min Max Rate
04/07 Tuesday 105.82 109.04 107.43
05/07 Wednesday 105.85 109.07 107.46
06/07 Thursday 105.83 109.05 107.44
07/07 Friday 105.79 109.01 107.40
10/07 Monday 106.55 109.79 108.17
11/07 Tuesday 106.30 109.54 107.92
12/07 Wednesday 106.16 109.40 107.78
13/07 Thursday 106.72 109.98 108.35
14/07 Friday 107.35 110.61 108.98
17/07 Monday 106.71 109.97 108.34
18/07 Tuesday 106.46 109.70 108.08
19/07 Wednesday 107.64 110.92 109.28
20/07 Thursday 108.22 111.52 109.87
21/07 Friday 108.14 111.44 109.79
24/07 Monday 108.73 112.05 110.39
25/07 Tuesday 108.90 112.22 110.56
26/07 Wednesday 109.20 112.52 110.86
27/07 Thursday 108.72 112.04 110.38
28/07 Friday 109.09 112.41 110.75
31/07 Monday 109.21 112.53 110.87
01/08 Tuesday 108.95 112.27 110.61
02/08 Wednesday 109.68 113.02 111.35
03/08 Thursday 109.66 113.00 111.33
04/08 Friday 109.13 112.45 110.79
Comment:
GDP Growth Rate -0.4 0.1 percent Mar/23
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.4 2.1 percent Mar/23
GDP 467 424 USD Billion Dec/22
GDP Constant Prices 130518 131044 SGD Million Mar/23
Gross National Product 539955 469088 SGD Million Dec/22
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 29713 29636 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP per Capita 67360 67176 USD Dec/22
GDP per Capita PPP 108036 107741 USD Dec/22
Full Year GDP Growth 3.65 7.61 percent Dec/22
GDP from Construction 3723 3702 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP from Manufacturing 27364 28732 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP from Services 19411 19546 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP from Transport 7873 7971 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP from Utilities 1515 1538 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP Growth Annualized -2.7 0.8 percent Mar/23
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.4 2.1 percent Mar/23
GDP 467 424 USD Billion Dec/22
GDP Constant Prices 130518 131044 SGD Million Mar/23
Gross National Product 539955 469088 SGD Million Dec/22
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 29713 29636 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP per Capita 67360 67176 USD Dec/22
GDP per Capita PPP 108036 107741 USD Dec/22
Full Year GDP Growth 3.65 7.61 percent Dec/22
GDP from Construction 3723 3702 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP from Manufacturing 27364 28732 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP from Services 19411 19546 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP from Transport 7873 7971 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP from Utilities 1515 1538 SGD Million Mar/23
GDP Growth Annualized -2.7 0.8 percent Mar/23
Comment:
Housing Index 194 195 points Jun/23
Home Ownership Rate 89.3 88.9 percent Dec/22
New Home Sales 1038 887 Units May/23
Residential Property Prices 8.64 13.61 Percent Dec/22
Home Ownership Rate 89.3 88.9 percent Dec/22
New Home Sales 1038 887 Units May/23
Residential Property Prices 8.64 13.61 Percent Dec/22
Comment:
Here is an analysis of the positive and negative impacts of a weak and strong Japanese yen on various countries and regions:
Positive Impacts of Weak Japanese Yen:
Japanese Exports: A weak yen can boost Japanese exports by making them more price competitive in international markets. It makes Japanese goods relatively cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially increasing demand and stimulating export-oriented industries.
Tourism: A weak yen can attract more international tourists to Japan, as their foreign currencies can have greater purchasing power in the country. This can benefit the tourism industry and generate foreign exchange earnings.
Overseas Investments: A weak yen can encourage Japanese businesses and investors to seek opportunities abroad. It makes overseas investments relatively cheaper in terms of yen, potentially promoting outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and diversifying business activities.
Negative Impacts of Weak Japanese Yen:
Imported Inflation: A weak yen increases the cost of importing goods and raw materials, potentially leading to higher inflation. This can impact the purchasing power of Japanese consumers and erode their standard of living.
Energy Imports: Japan is heavily reliant on energy imports, particularly oil and natural gas. A weak yen increases the cost of energy imports, which can have adverse effects on energy-intensive industries and contribute to higher production costs.
Consumer Electronics: Japan is known for its consumer electronics industry. A weak yen can increase the cost of importing electronic components and materials, potentially affecting the competitiveness and profitability of Japanese electronic manufacturers.
Positive Impacts of Strong Japanese Yen:
Imported Goods: A strong yen makes imported goods relatively cheaper, benefiting Japanese consumers and potentially increasing their purchasing power.
Energy Costs: A strong yen reduces the cost of energy imports, which can benefit energy-intensive industries and help control production costs.
Travel and Education Abroad: A strong yen can make international travel and education abroad more affordable for Japanese citizens, potentially boosting outbound tourism and educational opportunities.
Negative Impacts of Strong Japanese Yen:
Japanese Exports: A strong yen can make Japanese exports relatively more expensive in international markets, potentially reducing their competitiveness and impacting export-oriented industries.
Tourism: A strong yen can make Japan relatively more expensive for international tourists, potentially affecting the tourism industry and reducing foreign exchange earnings.
Inflation and Deflation Concerns: A strong yen can exacerbate deflationary pressures in the Japanese economy, as it makes imported goods cheaper and can lead to lower domestic prices. This can hinder economic growth and pose challenges for policymakers.
It's important to note that the impact of currency strength or weakness on a country's economy can vary depending on various factors, including the country's economic structure, trade dynamics, fiscal policies, and global market conditions. The effects on specific countries or regions can also depend on their trade relationships, exchange rate policies, and economic interdependencies with Japan.
Positive Impacts of Weak Japanese Yen:
Japanese Exports: A weak yen can boost Japanese exports by making them more price competitive in international markets. It makes Japanese goods relatively cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially increasing demand and stimulating export-oriented industries.
Tourism: A weak yen can attract more international tourists to Japan, as their foreign currencies can have greater purchasing power in the country. This can benefit the tourism industry and generate foreign exchange earnings.
Overseas Investments: A weak yen can encourage Japanese businesses and investors to seek opportunities abroad. It makes overseas investments relatively cheaper in terms of yen, potentially promoting outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and diversifying business activities.
Negative Impacts of Weak Japanese Yen:
Imported Inflation: A weak yen increases the cost of importing goods and raw materials, potentially leading to higher inflation. This can impact the purchasing power of Japanese consumers and erode their standard of living.
Energy Imports: Japan is heavily reliant on energy imports, particularly oil and natural gas. A weak yen increases the cost of energy imports, which can have adverse effects on energy-intensive industries and contribute to higher production costs.
Consumer Electronics: Japan is known for its consumer electronics industry. A weak yen can increase the cost of importing electronic components and materials, potentially affecting the competitiveness and profitability of Japanese electronic manufacturers.
Positive Impacts of Strong Japanese Yen:
Imported Goods: A strong yen makes imported goods relatively cheaper, benefiting Japanese consumers and potentially increasing their purchasing power.
Energy Costs: A strong yen reduces the cost of energy imports, which can benefit energy-intensive industries and help control production costs.
Travel and Education Abroad: A strong yen can make international travel and education abroad more affordable for Japanese citizens, potentially boosting outbound tourism and educational opportunities.
Negative Impacts of Strong Japanese Yen:
Japanese Exports: A strong yen can make Japanese exports relatively more expensive in international markets, potentially reducing their competitiveness and impacting export-oriented industries.
Tourism: A strong yen can make Japan relatively more expensive for international tourists, potentially affecting the tourism industry and reducing foreign exchange earnings.
Inflation and Deflation Concerns: A strong yen can exacerbate deflationary pressures in the Japanese economy, as it makes imported goods cheaper and can lead to lower domestic prices. This can hinder economic growth and pose challenges for policymakers.
It's important to note that the impact of currency strength or weakness on a country's economy can vary depending on various factors, including the country's economic structure, trade dynamics, fiscal policies, and global market conditions. The effects on specific countries or regions can also depend on their trade relationships, exchange rate policies, and economic interdependencies with Japan.
Comment:
Bond Yields Continue to Fall
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.
Comment:
This trade is stil open and active
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
Comment:
trade is open
Currency 1.35 1.35 Jul/23
Stock Market 3207 3206 points Jul/23
GDP Growth Rate -0.4 0.1 percent Mar/23
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.4 2.1 percent Mar/23
Unemployment Rate 1.8 2 percent Mar/23
Inflation Rate 5.1 5.7 percent May/23
Inflation Rate MoM 0.3 0.1 percent May/23
Interest Rate 3.78 3.79 percent Jun/23
Balance of Trade 5491 4762 Million SGD May/23
Current Account 29454 23522 SGD Million Mar/23
Current Account to GDP 19.3 18 percent of GDP Dec/22
Government Debt to GDP 168 160 percent of GDP Dec/22
Government Budget -0.3 -0.9 percent of GDP Dec/22
Business Confidence 2 -25 points Mar/23
Manufacturing PMI 49.7 49.5 points Jun/23
Retail Sales MoM 0.3 2.2 percent Apr/23
Corporate Tax Rate 17 17 percent Dec/23
Personal Income Tax Rate 22 22 percent Dec/22