dereckcoatney

China's Shanghai Composite Might Be in Serious Trouble

Short
TVC:SHCOMP   None


When I have examined the Shanghai Composite in the past, I have used the arithmetic scale, which I most often customarily use and here is what that looks like:


Based on that, we see a symmetrical triangle, with what appears to be the beginnings of a great launch in progress. However, given the risks I believe all of the world markets are now facing, I just find it too hard to believe that it can get up to test the top of that triangle before the other world markets collapse. They would either need to defy the stresses that every other world market will soon face, or they would need an immediate hyper-inflationary scenario, neither of which I believe fit the fundamentals. As a matter of fact, I believe their economy may face greater stress than many others, due to their near total reliance on exports; and hyper-inflationary scenarios take at least a bit of time to actually unfold. And it also isn't hard to imagine that trade tensions, geopolitical backlash from many nations, and the misallocation of capital that attends communist planning will all cause these stocks to suffer.

So, I decided to keep looking, and I opted to try some things using the logarithmic scale, which could be especially useful with this index given its wild historical price swings. And so that is the chart that leads this "idea" above.

On that scale, something more realistic emerges. Beginning in 2018, world GDP began slowing and we see this reflected in broad measures of our own economy, for instance in the Russell 2000, which peaked in 2018, despite the other indices (Apple) going on to make new all-time highs.

And so China's Shanghai Composite, with its dependence on exporting goods, broke, on the logarithmic scale, an important major trend line in 2018 and has struggled ever since to recapture it. Furthermore, its most recent price action, including the retail frenzy that has taken hold of their population in the last few weeks, seems to have found that trend line as overhead resistance.

Having remained below this, there may not be much support at all. If things get ugly, this index could completely fall apart.

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