Backing Up The Truck

trade-God Updated   
COMEX:SI1!   Silver Futures
It seems silver is heating up. Better shine up your bullion and get ready for some crypto-like swings. From a macro perspective it looks very similar to the bullish cupping pattern on many other charts. Starting with the Fibonacci extensions measured out from the past major bull run it looks like once again, price clings to the levels like a magnet.

During the 2003-2011 bull market the most notable swings range from 65 to over 100%. The pullbacks sometimes just as violent. The 50 week EMA looks like it was a relatively solid support level and will likely remain so in the future.

Silver has already made it's first 75% move from off the 50 week EMA and has pulled back to the 0.236 fib. It looks like that could be the floor for now. Another 75ish% move would put it up between the 0.5 and 0.618 level around $40.

It will likely take some time to get there with a lot of chop. There is still a risk of the DXY having a technical relief rally especially if new starts rolling out of 'stimulus' disappointments. This is how I've been playing it considering these risks...

After it broke $20 - accumulating bits and pieces on dips, building a core long term position. Trimming and booking some profits into the larger swings.

Fib targets to watch for now:
0.382 --- 31.50
0.5 --- 37.45
0.618 --- 43ish

Trading is risky, don't do it.

Long (6% of portfolio)
Silver bullion and coins
Ideally silver builds a base here at the 2012 lows and can take off to the highs by mid year. If it breaks the trend that could change everything but it's doubtful.
Almost time for a decisive move. If prices break to new local highs, next stop is 35.

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