Blue_Line_Futures

Silver: History May Not Repeat, But it Rhymes

COMEX:SI1!   Silver Futures
Gold (June) / Silver (July)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2392.9, down 33.0

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 31.496, down 0.582

The metals complex was bludgeoned yesterday and given the late session selling, settlement prices do not do it justice. While risk management becomes more important than ever during times of uncertainty, pullbacks or corrections can last longer than one is comfortable, it is also equally as crucial to back out of the forest to see the trees. It is a time like this that I am reminded that during Silver’s path to $50 in 2011, there were multiple corrections of $3 or more. In February 2011, Silver broke out above its December high of 31.27 and on the third session, stretched to a high of 34.33 before consolidating a day and plunging to a low of 31.69. There were four instances like this before Silver peaked at 49.82 on April 25, 2011.

Yes, our Bias remains more Bullish, and it becomes imperative for Silver to have a constructive path and hold out above our two waves of rare major four-star support. The first aligns the April high with the .382 retracement back to the May low at 30.19-30.27. Last night’s low was 30.36. In the case of additional pressures, we will look to a critical area at 29.50-29.72. If that is surrendered, the bigger broader narrative is bending.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 2375.2-2377.8**, 2385.3***, 2389.6-2392.9***, 2398.9-2400**, 2408**, 2416.2-2417.4***

Pivot: 2369.7-2370.6

Support: 2356.8-2360.2**, 2349.8**, 2340.3-2343***, 2322.5-2325.1***

Silver (July)

Resistance: 31.18***, 31.28-31.32**, 31.50-31.61***

Pivot: 30.91-30.96

Support: 30.63-30.73**, 30.36-30.43**, 30.19-30.27****, 29.50-29.72****

*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.

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