This is labeled as neutral because there are actually two counts for SLP now that everyone should be watching. The main thing that traders and players of Axie Infinity need to do is watch the invalidation levels for each one of them.
The one shown here, the main count for us, is the bear count. We think that the chance this count is correct is around 75% right now.
Let's also assign a 25% probability that this bullish scenario will play out. This is what the macro bull count looks like.
WE NEED TO WATCH THESE MAJOR LEVELS
Otherwise we won't know when the market has decided to validate one of the counts! So here they are:
Macro bearish invalidation AND bullish validation: break above 0.43, the ATH
Macro bullish invalidation AND bearish validation: break below 0.17, the top of the blue wave (i) of the minuette degree.
There's a few reasons the general leaning ends up being bearish:
The new SLP futures market on FTX no longer forces degenerate speculators to purchase physical SLP, which doesn't take any out of the market and creates less demand.
The game server itself for Axie Infinity has had trouble for the past four days and there is currently no end in sight, with the game being barely playable few players are breeing or buying Axies.
The overall market is leaning slightly bearish, including ETH and BTC, which SLP is still correlated to despite having it's own economy.
SLP is inflationary, and the new wave of players that once brought supply down is now going to conversely increase supply if we don't continuously grow the game faster than before.
For more information on the technicals, please visit: docs.google.com/spre...ZiEDsBVDlTWpj7s/edit
Note that none of the targets are certain. SLP could decrease a lot more or a lot less in the bear case, it just can't break 1 cent. In the bull case SLP can basically go up as high as it wants, well over one dollar.
The one shown here, the main count for us, is the bear count. We think that the chance this count is correct is around 75% right now.
Let's also assign a 25% probability that this bullish scenario will play out. This is what the macro bull count looks like.
WE NEED TO WATCH THESE MAJOR LEVELS
Otherwise we won't know when the market has decided to validate one of the counts! So here they are:
Macro bearish invalidation AND bullish validation: break above 0.43, the ATH
Macro bullish invalidation AND bearish validation: break below 0.17, the top of the blue wave (i) of the minuette degree.
There's a few reasons the general leaning ends up being bearish:
The new SLP futures market on FTX no longer forces degenerate speculators to purchase physical SLP, which doesn't take any out of the market and creates less demand.
The game server itself for Axie Infinity has had trouble for the past four days and there is currently no end in sight, with the game being barely playable few players are breeing or buying Axies.
The overall market is leaning slightly bearish, including ETH and BTC, which SLP is still correlated to despite having it's own economy.
SLP is inflationary, and the new wave of players that once brought supply down is now going to conversely increase supply if we don't continuously grow the game faster than before.
For more information on the technicals, please visit: docs.google.com/spre...ZiEDsBVDlTWpj7s/edit
Note that none of the targets are certain. SLP could decrease a lot more or a lot less in the bear case, it just can't break 1 cent. In the bull case SLP can basically go up as high as it wants, well over one dollar.
Comment:
On the one hour chart, the SLP bulls have managed to print a very convincing case for at least a move up, an possibly even a move above the ATH if they can gain enough momentum. Have a look.
Comment:
The bulls think it's a WXY correction, just completed with an ending diagonal in the last C leg of the wave Y.
Comment:
The chance that SLP will break the ATH has increased substantially. Now it is the most likely outcome so it's what we should expect. Remember, the second the ATH breaks we have validated an extremely bullish count.
Comment:
There is a high probability that on either Friday or Saturday the ATH for SLP will break.