Chip Stock Island Gap

Chip stocks look waaay overdone, yet I don't think it's over. If you look at just 2019, this gap looks like an exhaustion gap, but if you look at the semiconductor ETF ( SMH ), you can see that it looks more like an island gap.

Wait at least until SMH hits $106 before shorting chips. Also, chip stocks were strong last Feb/March.

Not sure if SMH is worth chasing at this point, NXPI reports AH tonight though, I have some calls for that.
Comment: NXPI guidance sucked, futures down, SMH might close the gap, which would invalidate the island gap theory...

DRAM prices appear to have stabilized though, so not expecting a major tank... yet.
Comment: Filled the gap and went back up. Expect this to spike if a China deal gets done.
Comment: SMH hit the $106 target, though there's still a gap at $107 to be filled. Lightening up on the chip stocks that I'm holding. Chip rally looks to be ending soon.

Holding INSG and CIEN through earnings. Will buy calls if they dip this week.
Comment: Chip stock rally appears to be done, still holding CIEN and INSG for earnings next week. MU, STM, NVDA, etc all look weak. Might be worth a one day shot at weekly puts.

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