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Top IVR/IV Underlyings in Broad Market, ETF's This WeekI've really been incredibly lazy of late screening the market for top IVR/IV underlyings to sell premium in, so thought I'd get off my duff for a change and do some "work" ... . Here are the underlyings in broad market and the ETF space with highly liquid options ranked in descending order by IVR (implied volatility rank, i.e., where IV is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks): Broad Market: QQQ (60.1 IVR/25.0% IV) EFA (31.1/13.9%) SPY (27.8/14.9%) IWM (20.0/20.3%) DIA (19.5/13.6%) For broad market premium selling, I generally look to sell premium where IVR>50 and 30-day IV is >21, so I'd probably only consider selling premium in the Q's here. Illustration: QQQ August 28th (47 DTE), 676/786/2 x 790/795, 3.22 credit on a buying power effect (BPE) of 6.78, 47.5% ROC at max, 23.7% at 50% max. Generally, I'm looking to get one-third the width of the widest wing in credit, so this would be a marginal trade here. ETF's: SMH (Semiconductors) (88.1/58.5%) EEM (Emerging Market) (83.6/38.9%) EWY (Japan) (81.0/81.0%) URA (Uranium) (61.1/52.5%) XLE (Energy) (57.2/25.8%) With ETF's, my cut-off's are >50 IVR, >35% 30-day IV, so SMH, EEM, EWY, and URA would be viable candidates; XLE would not because its IV is <35. Illustrations: SMH August 21st (40 DTE), 520/530/720/730 iron condor, 3.37 credit on BPE of 6.63, 50.8% ROC at max, 25.4% at 50% max. 20 delta short option legs. EWY August 21st (40 DTE), 145/155/230/240 iron condor, 3.75 credit on BPE of 6.25, 60.0% ROC at max, 30.0% at 50% max. 23 delta short option legs. Naturally, after hours quotes are showing wide bid/mid/ask, so will have to price these out during regular market hours.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
$SOX Short Term Momentum Shift in Play?Taking a close look at the 4Hr timeframe for the actionable setup, while keeping the Daily chart in view to maintain perspective on the broader picture. Key Technical Observations Support Holding Firm: NASDAQ:SOX recently tested and bounced cleanly off key horizontal support, indicating buyers are stepping in to defend this level. Gap Analysis: The gap to the upside remains relatively minuscule. The newer gap formed today is a tad larger, creating a clear short term liquidity target above. RSI Trend Break: RSI on both timeframes is putting pressure on its descending resistance line, threatening to break out of the prevailing downtrend. TTM Momentum: The TTM Squeeze histogram is throwing darker bars, signaling that short term selling pressure is decelerating. The Setup & Outlook While the medium-term structure retains some caution, the confluence of a support bounce, slowing downside momentum on the TTM, and an RSI trendline test suggests short term bearish momentum has a solid chance to swing positive. A breakout on the RSI accompanied by follow through volume could easily trigger a move to fill the miniscule gap and push price back toward upper trendline resistance. Plan: Watch for a clean confirmation on the 4H close above the immediate RSI downtrend before taking directional bias to the upside. What are your targets for semiconductors into the week? Let us know in the comments below!
TVC:SOX
by ROW_Partners
Do Not Lose your SOXX! Pt2Back on June 23, we sounded the alarm on chips. That warning is now playing out in real time. Let us look at what the charts are telling us today without making it too complicated. The Daily Chart Is Getting Ugly The short term picture shows that sellers are firmly in control right now. Price is currently trading below all of its key short term moving averages. We are right on the verge of a bearish crossover, which CAN mean more downside pressure is coming. The daily TTM momentum indicator is about to turn red, showing that the buying power has completely dried up for now. (NOT SHOWN) Where is the Floor? We are currently sitting right around a minor support area near 540. If this area holds, the bulls might get a bounce. But if 540 breaks, the floor is a long way down: There is no real support under us until we hit 465, which is a level the market zoomed past and barely traded at earlier this year. If we look at the big picture weekly chart, the ultimate major support level sits all the way down around 360. The Big Picture History shows us that the long term trend for semiconductors is incredibly strong. Even when momentum slows down, it can eventually find its footing and march higher. However, the short term daily trend is broken. Buying the dip right this second is a high risk move until the charts show us that the selling is done. Do you think 540 holds through the week, or are we visiting 465 sooner rather than later? NASDAQ:SMH NASDAQ:SOXX NASDAQ:SOX
NASDAQ:SOXX
by ROW_Partners
Bad Jobs Data, Good Week For Stocks — The Chart Behind It.The June jobs report added 57,000 nonfarm payrolls against a 115,000 consensus estimate. Unemployment fell to 4.2% primarily on falling participation rather than genuine job creation. The S&P 500 gained 2% on the week as markets repriced the probability of a near-term rate hike lower. The macro context for chart analysis Polymarket prices zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 79.8% probability. Goldman Sachs has pushed its rate cut forecast to June 2027. Rates are staying at 3.50% to 3.75% and the data-dependent framework under Warsh means every economic release carries heightened significance for asset pricing without any forward guidance to calibrate against. In this environment, Gate 1 confirmation on the weekly chart matters more than usual before entering any position. The trend needs to be structurally confirmed by the EMA cluster, not just recently bouncing from a low. The semiconductor breakdown Sandisk fell 19.6%, Teradyne fell 18.5%, Western Digital fell 16.2%, and Micron fell 14.3% for the week. Weekly declines of this magnitude across a sector represent a Gate 1 breakdown on a category basis. The weekly EMA cluster on each of these names needs to be assessed individually. A 50-week EMA crossing below or approaching the 200-week EMA would confirm the structural breakdown. Until the trend structure is clearly re-established, these names are in the watch phase only. Patience The names with intact structures Tesla beat Q2 delivery estimates by 74,000 units. Meta announced it is monetising excess AI compute capacity. Palantir was upgraded citing the AI orchestration thesis. Each of these needs to be assessed against the weekly EMA structure rather than against the news headline alone. A Gate 1 confirmation on the weekly, with price above the EMA cluster and the 50-week above the 200-week, is the prerequisite before any setup in these names is valid. What to watch into next week The rate environment is frozen. The labour market is weakening. Inflation is running above target. In this combination, assets with genuine structural uptrends and income characteristics, long-term EMA trend-confirmed positions with yield while you wait, have historically outperformed assets that require perfect macro timing to deliver returns. Assess each setup against the three gates. Gate 1 first. Always. Not financial advice. All commentary is for analytical purposes only.
TVC:SPX
by RB_T
THE GHOST OF MARCH 2000: Up only --> Distribution ---> Dump🖥️ 📡🖥️ 📡 📉 ⚡📉 ⚡? History doesn’t repeat itself, but it absolutely loves to rhyme in perfect geometric fractals. If you want to understand the true psychological state of the current technology market, you have to stop looking at daily news feeds and look directly at the structural footprints left by the smart money over two decades ago. The historical daily chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) from the Dot-Com era, shows a market structural template that is currently being mirrored candle-for-candle in today's market. Let's dissect the absolute asylum that was the year 2000 melt-up, and look at the terrifyingly precise carryovers playing out under the hood of our current economy. 🧠 Part I: The Mood & Narratives of the 2000 Melt-Up To stand on the trading floor in late 1999 and early 2000 was to witness collective financial hysteria. The core narrative driving the SOX to its historic 1,362.10 blow-off top was simple: "The Internet is reshaping the entire infrastructure of human civilisation, and if you don't build out capacity today, your corporate empire will cease to exist tomorrow." 1. The "Pipes and Infrastructure" Paradigm Wall Street completely stopped valuation metrics based on current price-to-earnings ratios. Instead, stocks like Cisco, Intel, Applied Materials, and Sun Microsystems were valued on "infinite future scalability." The narrative dictated that telecom giants and internet service providers had to aggressively hoard hardware, networking chips, and fiber-optic switchgear to handle the exponential explosion of web traffic. 2. Forced Capex and FOMO Corporate boards were terrified of being left behind. Companies were aggressively taking on debt just to place massive equipment orders with semiconductor firms, creating a completely artificial, double-ordered backlog. If a semiconductor company reported a backlog that stretched out twelve months, the stock would rip 20% in a single session because investors assumed that demand curve was permanent. 3. The Unravelling The euphoria completely masked the structural reality: the infrastructure providers had vastly overbuilt capacity. Once the initial build-out phase paused, corporations realised they had enough hardware to handle traffic for the next decade. Capex budgets didn't just slow down—they completely evaporated overnight. The massive backlogs vanished, double-orders were violently cancelled, and the SOX suffered a brutal multi-year distribution collapse back down to the 200 level. 🪞 Part II: The 2026 Structural Carryovers Fast forward to the current state of the global chip trade. When you pull up the macro chart of our current price action in the SOX, the structural mirror image is almost uncanny. We are watching the exact same psychological playbook manifest in the AI era. The Modern Narrative Shift: Replace "Internet bandwidth and fiber-optic cables" with "Artificial Intelligence models and liquid-cooled data centers." The exact same corporate mandate applies: hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon) are forced into a multi-billion dollar capital expenditure arms race because they are terrified of falling behind in the AI matrix. The Emerging Capex Cracks: Just like the early 2000 peak, we are starting to see the very first signs of infrastructure exhaustion. Broadcom's recent guidance shock—where management refused to lift its full-year AI forecast despite intense market pressure—is the modern equivalent of an early warning sign from 2000. The Efficiency and Monitisation Wall: In 2000, companies built websites but didn't know how to turn a profit on them yet. In 2026, tech giants are spending 145 billion dollars a year on computing clusters, while enterprise users are starting to implement token caps to control costs or migrating to highly optimized, lower-cost open-source Chinese models. The monetisation runway is hitting a wall while the hardware costs continue to scale vertically. 📐 Part III: Mapping the Fractal Geometry The visual alignment between the two charts is a masterclass in market architecture. Look at the exact sequence mapped out by the custom trend follower indicator: ➔ ➔ ➔ The Consolidation & Trap: Both began their major macro cycles with a grinding, multi-month corrective 5-wave wedge designed to exhaust retail patience and accumulate institutional blocks. The Final Shakeout: Just before the real trend ignited, both eras executed a violent, swift shakeout low that undercut key moving averages to flush out late-stage leverage. The Orderly Lead Up: Both structures then transitioned into a highly disciplined, ascending Lead Up channel. This phase grinds consistently higher, lulling the market into a false sense of orderly security. The "UP ONLY" Parabola: Once the channel upper boundary snaps, the market enters the final, vertical blow-off stage. In 2000, this culminated at the 1,362.10 peak. In our current cycle, it catapulted the index to an absolute high of 14,655.29. The Tactical Summary We are currently idling at 13,203.57, down 5.29% on the session, right at the precipice of the historical rollover zone. If the current structural top replicates the 2000 distribution model, the break below the initial expansion floor at 10,889.68 will activate a multi-year structural de-rating that will catch the entire passive-investing crowd completely off guard. We don't short based on historical nostalgia alone, but ignoring this structural mirror image is a choice you make at your own financial peril. #SOX #PhiladelphiaSemiconductor #DotComBubble #FractalAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketHistory #AIBubble #Nvidia #Broadcom #MacroAlpha #TradingView #MeltUp #ShortScenario #ChartPatterns #SmartMoneyConcepts Since we are monitoring this massive structural rollover across the semiconductor index, are you looking to use a breakdown of the 10,889 support floor as your macro cue to aggressively hunt downside positions on individual mega-cap hardware suppliers?
NASDAQ:SOXShort
by BallaJi
Do not lose your $SOX!🚨 Semiconductors: Time To Sound the Alarm! NASDAQ:SOX is flashing a serious message: momentum exhaustion, failed breakout, and a stack of unfilled gaps below that act like gravity wells when leadership finally cracks. Key signals from the charts: Severe RSI Exhaustion: While price action pushed to aggressive higher highs through May and into June, the Relative Strength Index formed a glaring, stark lower high trendline. This momentum divergence indicates severe buying exhaustion at the top. CMF rolling over: Money flow leaving the sector quietly. The divergence on the NASDAQ:SOXX pane is particularly damning. CMF has been steadily decelerating, showing a distinct lack of institutional capital sponsorship during the final vertical thrust. Distribution candles: Are funds selling into strength? Looking closely at recent daily price action (highlighted in the yellow box on NASDAQ:SOXX ), the breakdown is being driven by massive red volume spikes. This confirms heavy institutional selling pressure on the downside rather than standard, low-volume profit-taking. Multiple GAP zones below! Conclusion This is not a crash call. It is a risk reward flip. Leadership is tired, and the first weak bounce after a big red day is usually when the machines switch from “buy dips” to “sell rips.” Parabolic runs love to retrace their breakout origins when they snap. Protect capital, tighten stops on long exposure, and watch the intermediate EMAs closely. If they give way, the magnetic pull to fill those lower gaps becomes the primary thesis.
TVC:SOX
by ROW_Partners
WOLF – Was at $80. Held the 50 SMA. SMH at Highs. WOLF – SMH At Highs. SOXL At Highs. This One Was $80. Now Testing $53. Catch-Up Play. ───────────────────────────────── The semiconductor index is hitting highs and WOLF is one of the few names in the group that hasn't had its full run back. Stock was at $80 not long ago. Pulled back hard, held the 50 SMA, and is triggering a breakout at $53 right now. I'm in at $53 average with a stop at today's low. This is a riskier name. When it moves it moves fast. That's exactly the point. ───────────────────────────────── WHY WOLF IS IN THE RIGHT PLACE RIGHT NOW ───────────────────────────────── Wolfspeed signed an MOU with GE Aerospace to supply 10 kilovolt silicon carbide MOSFET die and co-develop high-voltage SiC power module formats for industrial, AI, aerospace, and defense markets. That's not an EV play anymore. That's aerospace, defense, and AI data center power all in one partnership with one of the most credible industrial names in the world. They just launched fifth-generation silicon carbide MOSFETs with up to 27% efficiency gains over competing 1,200 volt solutions on their 200 mm SiC platform. And separately, new 3.3 kilovolt SiC power module families are targeting AI data centers, grid-scale renewables, and solid-state transformers — and Wolfspeed is now building a dedicated data center solutions team and opening a Silicon Valley office to work directly with hyperscalers. The AI data center power theme just showed up in this name. Same story driving ENPH, SEDG, and SMR — AI needs power and SiC is a core enabler of efficient power delivery at scale. Short interest sits at 33.4% of the float with 2.9 days to cover. One positive catalyst — GE deal progress, an earnings beat, a hyperscaler design win announcement — and this name squeezes hard. That's the extra fuel behind momentum moves in WOLF. THE CATCH-UP ANGLE ───────────────────────────────── SMH hitting highs. SOXL hitting highs. The semiconductor group is as hot as it's been all year. WOLF was at $80 while all of this was happening and then got hit with a dilution filing that knocked it back into the $40s. That overhang created the pullback. The 50 SMA held. Now it's breaking back out at $53. The broader recovery narrative — having climbed from a 52-week low of $0.39 — continues to attract momentum-oriented traders who view dips as buying opportunities. The dilution fear created the setup. The GE Aerospace deal and Gen5 platform are the fuel for the next leg. ───────────────────────────────── TRADE PLAN ───────────────────────────────── Entry: $53 average on the breakout Stop: Low of day Pattern: Breakout from 50 SMA test and grind Upcoming catalyst: Q3 earnings call, July 1 product portfolio release Short squeeze fuel: 33.4% of float short ───────────────────────────────── THE RISK — AND IT'S SIGNIFICANT ───────────────────────────────── Wolfspeed is burning cash hard. Gross margin is negative at -31%. Net loss is $1.6 billion on trailing revenue of $757 million. This company went through a delisting and restructuring process less than a year ago. It is now trading as Wolfspeed Inc. New. The fundamentals are shaky — this is pure momentum and story. The chart and the sector give you the setup. Respect the stop at today's low and do not oversize this one.
NYSE:WOLFLong
by kunal00
MRVL – Breakout Pullback SetupWe already did the big breakout move on MRVL. Now we're in the second chapter — the pullback and hold setup. This is actually a better entry than chasing the initial breakout. Stock ripped nearly 100% in two weeks, pulled back, and found support right at the 9 EMA. That's exactly how a healthy momentum stock behaves. The pullback shook out weak hands. The base is resetting. I have a swing position on with a stop at $260. ───────────────────────────────── WHAT CHANGED SINCE THE BREAKOUT ───────────────────────────────── Three things happened after the initial move that make this hold even more meaningful. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang publicly called Marvell Technology "the next trillion-dollar company." The stock spiked more than 30% on that comment alone. When the most important person in the semiconductor industry points at a stock and says that publicly, you don't fade it on a pullback — you look for re-entries. On June 8 Marvell was officially added to the S&P 500 effective June 22. That's a forced buying event. Every S&P 500 index fund on earth has to own this stock before the close on June 22. That's trillions of dollars in passive capital that must purchase MRVL on a specific date regardless of price. Hard catalyst. Hard date. Calendar it. Marvell also just launched the Teralynx T100 — a 102.4 terabit per second switch chip built specifically for AI and cloud fabrics with 25% lower power consumption and industry-leading latency. That goes directly at the AI networking bottleneck every hyperscaler is trying to solve. CFO transition was announced today — and the company simultaneously reaffirmed its Q2 guidance. Management putting out a reaffirmation the same day as a CFO change is a deliberate confidence signal. CoinDesk ───────────────────────────────── THE SETUP ───────────────────────────────── Classic momentum behavior — parabolic run from $165 to $316, violent snapback into the $260s, now stabilizing. The EMA clouds held. The 9 EMA held. The stock is starting to come out of the consolidation range with buyers stepping in at the lows. Yahoo Finance This is the pullback-and-hold setup after a confirmed breakout. Better risk/reward than the initial entry because the stop is tighter and the fundamental story got bigger while the price came in. ───────────────────────────────── TRADE PLAN ───────────────────────────────── Entry: Swing position on — holding through the 9 EMA base Stop: $260 — below the 9 EMA support Hard catalyst date: S&P 500 inclusion effective June 22 Pattern: Breakout pullback and hold ───────────────────────────────── THE RISK ───────────────────────────────── MRVL is not cheap at these levels. Broad market pullback hits extended semis hard and fast. CFO transition is a wildcard even with guidance reaffirmed. Stop at $260 is non-negotiable — if that level breaks the pattern is broken.
NASDAQ:MRVLLong
by kunal00
1
The vertical AI rise versus the value King - IXIC/BerkshireStop waiting for the world to end. The conclusion of the AI tech meltup isn't a crash—it’s the start of the greatest Value Rotation of the decade. Know where the capital is flowing next. The Strategy: > Ride the high-velocity tech and proxy trends for the remaining ~7-month structural window. But as we reach the vertical exhaustion channel, prepare to shift out of the satellites and sit comfortably in the Value King's court. Play the rotation, don't fear the reaper. Hashtags: #Nasdaq #BerkshireHathaway #MacroRotations #ValueInvesting #TradingView #PortfolioStrategy #CapitalFlows #Meltup
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by BallaJi
2
GOOG Head TestWe keep seeing the same Head test pattern playing out in Major stocks. Head tests in head-and-shoulder patterns are not uncommon. The problem for balls is that they tend to be reversal patterns when located at tops. The entire reversal structure started way back in Nov with the erection move that turned into a H&S and now the Head test. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 7,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by RealMacro
10
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)The price action in NASDAQ:SMH is showing significant resistance at the $575-$580 zone. This rejection aligns with the semiconductor ETF testing the upper boundary of the 1-day Hull Moving Average (HMA) ribbon, a key technical indicator that defines the prevailing trend structure. This rejection at a major technical confluence is particularly noteworthy because NASDAQ:SMH is also forming a rounding top pattern on the daily chart. This pattern is a classic bearish reversal formation that typically occurs after a sustained uptrend, signaling that buying momentum is waning and distribution may be taking place. Key levels to monitor: Resistance: The $575-$580 zone and the top of the 1D HMA ribbon remain the primary hurdle for any bullish continuation. Support: A decisive break below the neckline of the rounding top pattern would provide stronger confirmation of a bearish reversal. This would likely target lower support levels, with the first significant level to watch being the $540-$550 area. Further selling pressure below the current levels would validate the bearish signals and could trigger a more pronounced technical pullback.
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by KalaGhazi
AVGO Head TestA head test that looks to be failing. Price is in the middle of a channel; going nowhere within it is a sign of early weakness. This is no longer an undiscovered AI play. The market has already paid up hard. If AI capex slows, hyperscalers cut orders, margins compress, or Google/others shift more design in-house, AVGO can rerate fast. Taking the stairs down and the elevator up is a sure sign that the move is designed to provoke emotions rather than rational investing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 7,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
NASDAQ:AVGOShort
by RealMacro
3
$INTC Breakout and Strategic PartnershipIntel Breakout Analysis Intel recently broke above a key horizontal resistance level, signaling a potential breakout. After surpassing this area, the stock experienced a pullback, but it appears to be confirming its breakout today, demonstrating relative strength (RS) even in a challenging market environment. Fundamental Drivers Behind the Breakout The primary catalyst for this breakout is a new partnership between Intel and Elon Musk. Musk's Terafab project, which is focused on developing specialized chips for SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla, is at the heart of this collaboration. Details of the Partnership On Tuesday, Intel announced its commitment to work with SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla to "design, fabricate, and package ultra-high-performance chips at scale." Supporting this announcement, Intel released a photo featuring its Chief Executive, Lip-Bu Tan, shaking hands with Elon Musk, who serves as the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by Brent_Calver
Semiconductors: Did The Pattern Just Fail? Nvidia is on watch for another failed pattern. When the worlds largest company recaptures key levels and negates bearish patterns you better be watching closely. Today Nvidia closed back above the key head and shoulders neckline. If this price action holds above the neckline we could be in for a really large short squeeze. One day does not make a trend but it does start to change probabilities as price action holds. Micron also had a really reversal and rally. Its chart looks vastly different then NVDA could be due for lots of chop as a new trading range is being defined.
NASDAQ:SOXX
by Trading-Capital
SMH Bullish Structure Confirmed — Pullback Strategy Active!🎯 SMH Semiconductor Heist: The $400 Target Caper 💰🚀 📊 Asset Overview VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) - NASDAQ Listed Trade Type: Swing Trade (Bullish Setup) Strategy Style: "The Thief Method" - Layered Entry Approach 🏴‍☠️ 🔍 Technical Analysis Breakdown 📈 Bullish Confirmation Signals ✅ Supertrend ATR Indicator: Bullish pullback confirmed ✅ HULL Moving Average: Clean retest and bounce pattern detected ✅ Market Structure: Higher lows forming with momentum building The setup is cooking like a perfectly timed bank job - all the technical stars are aligning! 🌟 💼 The "Thief Strategy" Game Plan 🎯 Entry Strategy (Layered Limit Orders) Multiple Buy Limit Layers: 🥇 Layer 1: $340.00 🥈 Layer 2: $345.00 🥉 Layer 3: $350.00 💎 Layer 4: $355.00 Note: You can add more layers based on your position size and risk appetite! This "scaling-in" approach reduces timing risk and averages your entry price. Think of it as sending multiple agents into the vault instead of going all-in at once! 🕵️‍♂️ 🛑 Risk Management ⚠️ Stop Loss Zone Thief's Emergency Exit: $335.00 Disclaimer: This is MY stop loss level based on technical invalidation. You're the captain of your own ship! 🚢 Set YOUR stop loss based on YOUR risk tolerance and account size. Risk management is personal - what works for a $10K account differs from a $100K account! 🎯 Profit Target 💰 Take Profit Zone Primary Target: $400.00 Reasoning: 🚧 Major resistance confluence zone ("Police Barricade" level) 📊 Historical supply zone where sellers previously appeared ⚠️ Potential overbought conditions expected at this level 🪤 Bull trap risk increases as retail FOMO kicks in Disclaimer: This is MY target based on technical analysis. YOU make the final call! Scale out partially at psychological levels ($375, $385, $390) if you prefer to lock profits along the way. Remember: "Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered!" 🐷 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch (Correlation Analysis) 📱 Individual Semiconductor Stocks: NASDAQ:NVDA (NVIDIA) - AI chip leader, ~10% weight in SMH NASDAQ:AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) - Strong correlation with SMH NASDAQ:AVGO (Broadcom) - Networking chips, infrastructure play NYSE:TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) - Foundry leader, bellwether for sector NASDAQ:INTC (Intel) - Legacy chips, inverse correlation at times NASDAQ:QCOM (Qualcomm) - Mobile chips, 5G exposure NASDAQ:ASML (ASML Holding) - Chip equipment, leading indicator 📊 Broader Market ETFs: NASDAQ:QQQ (Nasdaq-100) - Tech-heavy index with high SMH correlation AMEX:SPY (S&P 500) - Overall market sentiment gauge NASDAQ:SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF) - Direct competitor/confirmation AMEX:XLK (Tech Sector SPDR) - Broader tech exposure Key Correlation Points: 🔸 SMH typically moves with NVDA and AMD momentum 🔸 Watch NYSE:TSM for Asian market sentiment on chips 🔸 Rising NASDAQ:QQQ usually lifts all semiconductor boats 🔸 NASDAQ:SOXX divergence from SMH can signal sector rotation 🌍 Fundamental & Economic Factors 📰 Macro Catalysts to Monitor: 💡 Positive Factors (Bullish): 🤖 AI Boom Continuation: ChatGPT, autonomous vehicles, data centers = insatiable chip demand 🏭 CHIPS Act Funding: US government subsidies for domestic semiconductor production 📱 5G Rollout: Global infrastructure upgrades driving chip sales 🎮 Gaming & Crypto: GPU demand remains elevated 📈 Inventory Restocking Cycle: Post-2023 correction, supply chains normalizing ⚠️ Risk Factors (Watch Closely): 🇨🇳 China-Taiwan Tensions: Geopolitical risk (TSM produces ~90% of advanced chips) 💵 Fed Interest Rate Policy: Higher rates = lower tech valuations 📉 Economic Slowdown Fears: Recession = reduced corporate IT spending 🚫 Export Restrictions: US-China chip technology trade wars 📊 Inventory Glut Risk: Oversupply if demand weakens suddenly 📅 Key Events to Track: Quarterly earnings from NVDA, AMD, TSM (guidance is crucial!) Federal Reserve rate decisions (tech is rate-sensitive) US-China trade negotiations Monthly semiconductor sales reports (SIA data) 🎭 The Thief's Philosophy This isn't your grandpa's "buy and hold" strategy - this is active swing trading with style! 😎 We identify the setup, execute with layers, manage risk like professionals, and exit before the party turns ugly. No emotional attachment, no hopium - just cold, calculated profit extraction! 🧊💰 Remember: ✨ The market doesn't care about your mortgage payment ✨ Technical setups fail sometimes - that's why we use stops ✨ Taking profits is NOT a crime (despite the "Thief" branding! 😂) ✨ Live to trade another day > revenge trading losses ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! 🏴‍☠️ Happy Trading, Fellow Thieves! May your stops never get hit and your targets always fill! 💎🙌
NASDAQ:SMH
by The-Thief
Semiconductor Supercycle - Future Millionaires 2050Looking at the long-term chart of the Semiconductor sector, the trend is pretty clear. We have a persistent multi-year uptrend with periodic pullbacks (that don’t end the cycle). The price has long respected the long-term channel and historically any major correction has created buying opportunities rather than signaling a top. However, we are now part of an e ven larger cycle . Even though many semiconductor companies are trading near all-time highs, the bigger picture suggests we’re still in the early stages of a technological supercycle . Short-term valuations get most of the attention, but the underlying demand for computing power is growing much faster than in most traditional sectors. A few key forces make this trend likely to continue for decades: 1. AI expansion – AI systems need exponentially more computing power, driving demand for advanced chips. This is becoming a priority not only for the commercial sector and retail-focused companies, but also for global powers. 2. Electrification and automation – EVs, robotics, and smart infrastructure are increasing semiconductor content per device. Although some companies will want to build their own semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, the gaps in their semiconductor manufacturing knowledge are so huge that they will never achieve self-sufficiency. Dependence on the current semiconductor giants will increase even more. 3. Global digitalization – billions of connected devices and sensors are embedding computing into everyday life. 4. Geopolitical strategy – governments are investing heavily in domestic chip production and supply chains. 5. Technological barriers – only a handful of companies can operate at the cutting edge of chip manufacturing. From a long-term perspective, this creates a powerful dynamic = Semiconductor demand growing faster than global GDP for decades . There is currently no price bubble in the Semiconductor sector and this growth has absolutely nothing in common with the dotcom bubble. So even if prices look high today, the sector may still be structurally undervalued over a 20–30 year horizon. If the current technological trends continue, semiconductors are likely to remain one of the most important wealth-creating industries of this century. Currently, 30% of my portfolio is in this Semiconductor ETF. In the event of a significant short-term decline in this cyclical sector, I am prepared to increase this to more than 50%. The semiconductor sector will create the highest number of millionaires and billionaires since 2000 in the coming decades. If you plan to retire around 2040-2050, there is no sector or ETF on the market with higher potential than the VanEck Semiconductor ETF . Cheers NASDAQ:SMH LSE:SMH NASDAQ:SOXX XETR:VVSM LSE:0JG8
XETR:VVSMLong
by Mikajlo
SMH – Bulls Defending the StructureSMH remains overall bullish, trading within the rising wedge pattern marked in blue. Price is currently moving within a range, suggesting a corrective phase after the recent bullish impulse. The key area to watch is the intersection between the lower blue trendline and the green structure zone. As long as this support cluster holds, we will be looking for trend-following long setups in line with the broader bullish momentum. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by TheSignalyst
5
$SMH Chips Are The War. The ETF Is The Weapon.VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has become the central vehicle for expressing the entire semiconductor super cycle: AI accelerators, data centers, edge compute, and defense grade chips all flow through this basket. After a vertical run from sub $50 in the COVID era to over $400 today, SMH has pulled back sharply into a cluster of higher timeframe demand and Fibonacci levels while the fundamental story has only intensified. The chart you are looking at is not a bubble top. It is a violent retest inside a secular uptrend. Here is what has not changed while price whipped from the recent highs back into support: NVIDIA, TSMC, Broadcom, AMD, ASML, and other core holdings continue to post strong AI related backlogs and capex pipelines. Defense and intelligence agencies are accelerating secure chip procurement for missiles, drones, satellites, cyber offense, and encryption hardware as the Iran war and broader geopolitical fractures deepen. Sovereign reshoring programs in the US, EU, Japan, and India are committing large sums to on shore fabs and advanced packaging. Every AI data center expansion, including GPU clusters, networking, high bandwidth memory, and specialized inference ASICs, funnels orders directly into the SMH component base. Edge and automotive silicon demand is rising as EVs, ADAS, industrial automation, and military vehicles all add compute. No major constituent has reported a structural demand collapse; the pullback is position clearing, not a pipeline failure. What has changed is positioning and sentiment. After an almost parabolic monthly move into early 2026, crowded long exposure in AI and chips met macro fear, including rates repricing, Iran conflict risk, and profit taking at all time highs. The ETF reversed hard off the upper regression channel and has now stabbed back into the mid channel and key Fibonacci retracement levels, where my chart marks the two “BUY HERE” zones. The 20 month moving average is acting as dynamic support inside the trend channel while the longer term moving average still slopes firmly upward, confirming a primary bullish trend rather than a completed blow off. The monthly chart context is crucial. From 2019 to 2021, SMH launched from a quiet base into the first AI and 5G up leg, then consolidated through the 2022 bear market before breaking out again in 2023 and 2024. The latest leg from that base into the 2025 and 2026 highs has now retraced into prior breakout structure instead of breaking down through it. In other words, price has returned to the scene of the crime, where long term buyers previously stepped in with size. My chart anchors both buy zones exactly in this confluence: regression channel support, Fibonacci retracements, and prior monthly supply turned demand. 🟢 Buy Zone 1 ($332) Price has been driven back into the upper mid regression channel and the first major Fibonacci retracement of the most recent leg, just below the prior monthly high. The current monthly candle is showing a long lower wick as dip buyers defend the breakout zone, suggesting institutions are absorbing supply rather than abandoning the sector. This is the first high probability demand area with a tight, well defined invalidation just under the local structural low around 384 dollars. Stop Loss: $317 🟢 Buy Zone 2 $267 If war driven risk off, renewed rate volatility, or a broader tech correction pushes SMH deeper toward the mid channel and the next major Fibonacci level, this is the entry with maximum risk reward before the secular trend is questioned. It aligns with a prior multi month consolidation shelf and sits well above the long term 200 month moving average, which still trends upward. A flush into this level with capitulation volume would likely mark the kind of generational entry that funds build around for the next AI and defense cycle. Stop Loss: $253 Key Levels: 🔑 Current Price on chart: high 398s 🔑 Buy Zone 1: around 332 🔑 Buy Zone 2: around 267 🔑 Local Swing Low Support: mid 380s (short term invalidation below Zone 1) 🔑 Major Monthly Resistance and Target 1: around 496 dollars area 🔑 Major Monthly Resistance and Target 2: around 533 dollars area 🔑 Long Term Moving Average Support: rising 20 month moving average tracking the trend channel 🔑 Macro Tailwinds: AI data centers, defense technology, edge and auto silicon, reshoring subsidies 🎯 Primary Target: about 496 to 533 dollars (roughly plus 60 to 86 percent from Zone 1 and about 126,832 to 138,075 dollars potential on the full position) The headlines will keep swinging between “AI bubble” and “chip glut.” The chart is telling a different story. The global economy is being rewired around compute density: battlefield autonomy, missile guidance, ISR satellites, quantum secure communication, AI copilots for pilots and analysts, and real time logistics all run on semiconductors. The Iran war does not reduce that demand. It makes reliable, domestically controlled chip capacity a national security asset. SMH is not just another ETF in that world. It is how you own the infrastructure layer. What changed in this pullback is sentiment at extended prices, not the underlying requirement for GPUs, high bandwidth memory, EUV tools, RF chips, and secure microcontrollers. When that sentiment dumps price back into clean monthly demand with multi confluence support and clearly defined risk, that is not where the story ends. That is where the trade begins. If you found this analysis valuable, hit the Follow button at the top of the page and drop a like on this idea so it reaches more traders. Every idea in this Iran war series covering oil, defense, reconstruction, crypto, chips, cyber, AI infrastructure, domestic manufacturing, flash storage, AI data centers, and now the semiconductor backbone via SMH is being updated in real time as the conflict and AI build out evolve. You do not want to miss what is coming next.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by ConnectmyCurrency