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The Smart Money Is Buying $SMSI Into Earnings. $5 Price Target!

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NASDAQ:SMSI   Smith Micro Software, Inc.
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SMSI (Smith Micro Software Inc.)

Alert Price: $3.36

Float: 22.31M

12-Month Consensus Price Target: $5.00

Investor Presentation

Company Website | Recent News
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Members,

Smith Micro Software (SMSI) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2019. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.

The earnings report, which is expected to be released after tomorrow's close, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations.

We are bullish heading into tomorrow's earnings call, as not only has the Company witnessed consistent revenue growth over the past few months, but its technical chart is also triggering several buy signals, which have us believing that a breakout is inevitable.

SMSI is currently rated a "100% Strong Buy" on barchart.com, their highest level of confidence.

It appears that the "Smart Money" is also bullish on this mobile software developer, as shares of SMSI are currently ticking upwards in after-hours trading.

About Smith Micro Software, Inc.

Smith Micro develops software to simplify and enhance the mobile experience, providing solutions to some of the leading wireless service providers and cable MSOs around the world. From enabling the family digital lifestyle to providing powerful voice messaging capabilities, our solutions enrich today’s connected lifestyles while creating new opportunities to engage consumers via smartphones and consumer IoT devices. The Smith Micro portfolio also includes a wide range of products for creating, sharing and monetizing rich content, such as visual voice messaging, optimizing retail content display and performing analytics on any product set. For more information, visit www.smithmicro.com.

The Bullish Case For SMSI

SafePath subscribers continues to ramp and is accelerating
Company returned to growth, profitability, and positive cash flow in 2018
Significantly strengthen balance sheet - paid down dept obligations
Closed smart retail product acquisition (ViewSpot) - brings new growing profitable revenue stream - and customer diversification
Very Strong start to 2019 revenues, revenues increased to $8.4 million, sales pipeline continues to grow across all three of their core wireless solutions
The company basks in 35% organic revenue growth and nearly 90% gross margins, even without expected catalysts.
The sunsetting of Sprint's legacy app will come some day, but SafePath's growth is explosive even without that, and even without getting another carrier on board.
SafePath is morphing into a sophisticated IoT/Smart Home platform with a host of features, the market for this could be huge.
SMSI's Product Lineup/Outlook
SafePath
The growth is all the more encouraging because most of it comes from a whopping 75% growth in SafePath from Sprint (the company sells white label apps to carriers and it's called Safe and Sound for Sprint customers).

Revenue was nearly 7x that of Q1 2018, and increased 75% over Q4. These are remarkable numbers as:

Sprint still hasn't retired its legacy app.
Smith Micro still hasn't achieved to get a new carrier as a customer.
Those were supposed to be the two big catalysts for SafePath but we guess that if it can grow this strong without those catalysts, the company should really do very well.

This isn't such a surprise as SafePath really is a capable app, or better, platform, with a host of capabilities like (Q1CC):

"parental controls that enable parents to set app restrictions such as for YouTube and Facebook including age level restrictions for each device. Monitor video game usage, pause the Internet and set homework and bedtimes, apply content filtering with Safe Search. It should be noted that these parental controls remain active even when the child's device is outside of the home."

These capabilities are expanding, and with it its TAM, most notably with SafePath Home and SafePath IoT, which provide platforms for smart home devices and asset tracking (Q1CC):

"Named SafePath home and branded to the mobile operator, SafePath automatically secures connected devices through a router and provides remote monitoring control with one easy-to-use app. So from smartphones to non cellular devices such as gaming systems, SafePath enables families to manage all their connected devices wherever they are and wherever their devices go...

Additional features included in SafePath home are network protection that provides your Wi-Fi network with an artificial intelligence engine that is consistently adapting to new threats such as phishing attacks or computer viruses.

The software not only detects the attack but enables families to quarantine the device and isolate the device from the home network, so it doesn't cause damage to additional devices. Device fingerprinting which shows all devices connected to your network and categorized by user and type. That is like laptops, phones, watches et cetera. And mesh Wi-Fi network management designed to maximize speeds throughout the home."

We quoted at some length as it is pretty impressive and one has to keep in mind that the company doesn't sell to the public, but to carriers so it is incurring minimal sales and marketing cost and it can up-sell SafePath Home to regular SafePath users.

So SafePath is growing into a sophisticated platform with a host of solutions and if it can gain additional carriers as customers' growth could be really explosive.

ViewSpot
Their new product from the recent acquisition is ViewSpot which is an in-store marketing tool with a host of functionality (for features, see here). It has two Tier-1 carriers as customer and growth prospects seem to be solid (Q1CC):

"On the sales front, the ViewSpot pipeline continues to grow rapidly. We have several proof-of-concept trials underway in the field with a variety of carriers around the world. We believe that the ViewSpot sales cycle is shorter than our other wireless products."

Revenue in Q1 was $1.1M from ViewSpot and management is broadening the functionality of the platform, like dynamic digital pricing, giving customers the ability to update pricing remotely in an instant and in select regions or locations.

CommSuite
Their voice messaging platform, which is still their biggest earner enjoyed its sixth quarter of subscriber base revenue growth but advertisement revenue was down in Q1, taking revenues down a bit sequentially. But this doesn't seem beyond repair (Q1CC):

"our customer Sprint also wants to see more revenue, so they will be active in trying to build the ad revenue back up. As you may recall, the fall-off is because Brent they've invested pin site media which was a part of Sprint that was responsible for booking ads. And that divestiture was impacted the ad revenue and nothing else."

Even though they guided CommSuite revenue growth flat for the year so the growth has to come from the other two platforms. Unless of course they manage to get a new carrier on board for any one of these platforms, which is what they're aiming at (Q1CC):

"we've always said that our goal was to get another carrier on in this first half. And that's where we're at and that's what we're focused on. But, candidly, as we look at things now, we're looking at how we can expand all three of our business propositions and with new carriers across the board. So I think it's a much bigger effort than what you're questioning."

Any new carrier and we're off to the races, needless to say. More than one and investors can take the fizzy stuff out of the fridge because the company actually manages very solid growth and can reach profitability even without new carriers.

Source: seekingalpha.com/art...-blast-higher-moment

12-Month Consensus $5.00 Price Target Gives SMSI An Immediate +48% Upside

The 3 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Smith Micro Software Inc have a median target of 5.00, with a high estimate of 5.00 and a low estimate of 5.00. The median estimate represents a +48.81% increase from the last price of 3.36.

Technical Analysis

For all of you technical traders, SMSI should be the only ticker on your radar.

The Company is currently rated a "100% Strong Buy" on barchart.com, their highest level of confidence.

In order to achieve this rating, a stocks chart must trigger buy signals in 13-Key Technical Indicators.

The Bottom Line

We are extremely bullish on SMSI as we head into earnings.

Based on our research we believe that SMSI could see significant gains in both the short and long term.

That being said, we ask that you start your research on SMSI immediately and consider building a position tomorrow morning at 9:30AM EST

(*Remember to use a Stop-Loss Order or basic Limit Order to protect your gains, as well as limit possible losses.)




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