Not going to lie. Today was a rough trading day for me.
After a full month of feeling in the zone and catching both upside and downside moves, I had a pretty large loss today trying to short the S&P thinking we'd go down (I mean to be fair, I was right premarket - down over 1% but didn't anticipate a bounce).
All that to say, the day made me reassess market structures across asset classes and I realized that the move down was just a fake out in a consolidation pattern and that we're likely to head higher. I was looking at smaller timeframes and while there were head and shoulders patterns all over the place, none of them materialized and the bounced higher off their downtrend lines. Then I zoomed out.
If you look at the chart of $SOL, it actually looks extremely bullish. It's been consolidating in a bullish flag since the middle of January and looks poised to break out. On top of that, it's consolidating outside of the downtrend line.
I think the final target of this move is $111 (or strech target $135 -50% retracement), and while I know that sounds extremely bullish (for me in a bear market), I think price can get there just because of how oversold it was and how that would take us into the midpoint of the breakdown. I don't think getting up there would be that crazy.
I took a position here at $24.60. Let's see what happens over the coming weeks/months.
After a full month of feeling in the zone and catching both upside and downside moves, I had a pretty large loss today trying to short the S&P thinking we'd go down (I mean to be fair, I was right premarket - down over 1% but didn't anticipate a bounce).
All that to say, the day made me reassess market structures across asset classes and I realized that the move down was just a fake out in a consolidation pattern and that we're likely to head higher. I was looking at smaller timeframes and while there were head and shoulders patterns all over the place, none of them materialized and the bounced higher off their downtrend lines. Then I zoomed out.
If you look at the chart of $SOL, it actually looks extremely bullish. It's been consolidating in a bullish flag since the middle of January and looks poised to break out. On top of that, it's consolidating outside of the downtrend line.
I think the final target of this move is $111 (or strech target $135 -50% retracement), and while I know that sounds extremely bullish (for me in a bear market), I think price can get there just because of how oversold it was and how that would take us into the midpoint of the breakdown. I don't think getting up there would be that crazy.
I took a position here at $24.60. Let's see what happens over the coming weeks/months.
Comment:
There's a chance I might be a little early on this. If we lose support here instead of bouncing $23.40 (close below), then I might exit and wait till price reaches $19-20 before reentering.
Comment:
There should be a bounce that lets us out if we can't break above the highs. If it rejects resistance again and can't break out, that might setup a move lower first.
Either way targets are still the same, will just wait for a better entry
Either way targets are still the same, will just wait for a better entry
Comment:
I do think we just saw the lows and should head higher from here. The question is how high? If we can convincingly break the $27 area, then we should see continuation higher. However, if we stop in the $27 region, it would setup the potential for a rising wedge and a potential breakdown of this range.
I think the breakdown would likely take us back to $17-19 range. Then all of the targets on the upside above would still be valid for continuation.
I think the breakdown would likely take us back to $17-19 range. Then all of the targets on the upside above would still be valid for continuation.
Comment:
Chart looking more constructive. Same plan, break $27 convincingly and should see higher. I have a stop at $22.20 incase we get a move lower.
Comment:
Got the move lower and got stopped out. Will wait to see where to reenter. Still think the longer term idea is valid, but I like to catch lower entries if I can.
Comment:
Next levels down are $19.96, $17.14, $13.57. Let's see where we end up...
Comment:
Updated to account for correction before final targets:
Comment:
Thinking the correction starts now. $11.23 and lower will be my buy zone
Comment:
Still thinking we go much lower (down 40-50%) before we see higher.. The updated idea is still valid and even more likely now that $SOL confirmed resistance at $24:
Comment:
Alright, we're at a crossroads, if
SOL
can break back above $24 and confirm it as support, then we'll see a continuation higher.
If you look at the chart now, it seems to have formed a weird looking inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Think it has legs to at least $77.
But again, it needs to break above this resistance and confirm it as support first.
SOL
can break back above $24 and confirm it as support, then we'll see a continuation higher. If you look at the chart now, it seems to have formed a weird looking inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Think it has legs to at least $77.
But again, it needs to break above this resistance and confirm it as support first.
Comment:
Alright, think
SOL
turns higher from here. Let's see if we can get to the $100+ targets.
SOL
turns higher from here. Let's see if we can get to the $100+ targets.
