- Yield curve inversion of US2Y being higher than US10Y. Biggest inversion since the year 2000. Since 1955, equities have peaked six times after the start of an inversion, and the economy has fallen into recession within seven to 24 months. (Fed Chicago)
- Yesterday release of US inflation data was a new high of 9.1%.
- Almost guaranteed that Fed will raise 75bps for the meeting at the end of July with the consideration of raising 100bps too.
- 'Alongside its actions to tighten monetary policy, which include shrinking its $9tn balance sheet, the Fed has stepped up its rhetoric about not only its “unconditional” commitment to lowering inflation, but also what it is willing to risk in terms of the economic recovery to do so.' (Ft.com, 14 Jul)
- SP500 might retest its 50DMA around 3900-4000. Stop loss and take profit levels are determined using Fibo.
- Downtrend would continue if it breaks 3666 downwards.
- Timeframe: 1-3 months
- Yesterday release of US inflation data was a new high of 9.1%.
- Almost guaranteed that Fed will raise 75bps for the meeting at the end of July with the consideration of raising 100bps too.
- 'Alongside its actions to tighten monetary policy, which include shrinking its $9tn balance sheet, the Fed has stepped up its rhetoric about not only its “unconditional” commitment to lowering inflation, but also what it is willing to risk in terms of the economic recovery to do so.' (Ft.com, 14 Jul)
- SP500 might retest its 50DMA around 3900-4000. Stop loss and take profit levels are determined using Fibo.
- Downtrend would continue if it breaks 3666 downwards.
- Timeframe: 1-3 months