the SPX continues to trade within the top-half of it's trading range. The cleanest look would be to tap 2930ish where the trend resistance meets FIB 0.618 since the bottom... but falling RSI tops, and the gaps down every time the SPX tries to touch it's upper Bollinger band seem to be indicating a rally quickly losing steam.
The real question is, once it taps trend support for the 3rd time, will it hold for another leg up, or fail into unfilled gaps, and an eventual re-test of the lows?
I tend to think a re-test is inevitable, but whether that's in May this year, or May next year is not explicitly clear here, for me. With VIX now below 40, it's best to stop trying to play the larger swings, and make that alpha within these smaller moves.
Still up on the year, and since the peak, but I'll admit I'm waaay the hell down since the bottom. hoping to rectify that with some careful range trading alpha, and a readiness to get net short in a hurry when this rally finally fades.
The real question is, once it taps trend support for the 3rd time, will it hold for another leg up, or fail into unfilled gaps, and an eventual re-test of the lows?
I tend to think a re-test is inevitable, but whether that's in May this year, or May next year is not explicitly clear here, for me. With VIX now below 40, it's best to stop trying to play the larger swings, and make that alpha within these smaller moves.
Still up on the year, and since the peak, but I'll admit I'm waaay the hell down since the bottom. hoping to rectify that with some careful range trading alpha, and a readiness to get net short in a hurry when this rally finally fades.