While it is important to realize that we could drop at any moment, we also need to realize we are in a pivotal time in the market. There's a lot of history in here going back to the late 1800's.
While everybody is waiting for an imminent collapse of the financial system and rotating into cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, people fail to realize that things do not happen quickly. In my opinion, we are nowhere near a "bubble pop" in the stock market. Certainly, there are way more people investing actively in the stock market than we have ever seen, but I expect that will continue to grow.
The real bubble will be when people take out their 401k's in order to trade the stock market. People taking a huge early withdrawal penalty because they believe they can grow their money faster than their fund managers.
There are several key points here that I'd like to point out. First is that we have a clear 5 wave super cycle here and we are in the 5th and final wave. Remember, just because we're in the final wave doesn't mean we're done here. There are many key points in the chart, such as:
Our upside target if we measure the major wave 1 starting in ~1877 and ending in July of 1929 and project that from our most recent wave 4 pullback in February of 2009, our upside target is $8000 and I'm currently predicting we won't hit it until around January of 2028.
Are we going to see a repeat of Feb-Mar 2020? Maybe. Will it change my thesis? No way. We're talking about a projection that is currently nearly 7 years away.
While everybody is waiting for an imminent collapse of the financial system and rotating into cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, people fail to realize that things do not happen quickly. In my opinion, we are nowhere near a "bubble pop" in the stock market. Certainly, there are way more people investing actively in the stock market than we have ever seen, but I expect that will continue to grow.
The real bubble will be when people take out their 401k's in order to trade the stock market. People taking a huge early withdrawal penalty because they believe they can grow their money faster than their fund managers.
There are several key points here that I'd like to point out. First is that we have a clear 5 wave super cycle here and we are in the 5th and final wave. Remember, just because we're in the final wave doesn't mean we're done here. There are many key points in the chart, such as:
- Oct 1974: Hit the 23.6% retrace at $62.30 (wave 4 bullish target)
- Jan 2009: Hitting the 14.9% retrace at $667.10 (wave 4 moderate target)
- I won't give the details on the current count since we're still in the middle of it all
Our upside target if we measure the major wave 1 starting in ~1877 and ending in July of 1929 and project that from our most recent wave 4 pullback in February of 2009, our upside target is $8000 and I'm currently predicting we won't hit it until around January of 2028.
Are we going to see a repeat of Feb-Mar 2020? Maybe. Will it change my thesis? No way. We're talking about a projection that is currently nearly 7 years away.