without_worries

S&P 500 - Double top bearish divergence?

Short
SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
On the 3-day chart above a new candle will be printed on October 22nd (Thursday). We can see price action is currently rejecting the previous high with lower lows on all the oscillators (RSI, Stochastic RSI, & MFI), this is regular bearish divergence.

Two levels to watch (labelled above):

1) 3400 - a break here would make a very strong case for the double top bearish divergence.

2) 3296 - A candle closing below here would result in a break of market structure. Safe to go short from here.
Trade active:
Bulls defending the 3400 level. Bears hitting back as good as they get. Who will win?
Trade active:
2nd target reached - now watch for a candle closing under 3296. If it happens, it's all one direction for the remainder of the year.
Comment:
Weekly stochastic RSI prints a lower high. Next 10-days will not be pretty.

Comment:
On the 3-day chart below RSI appears to have broken out of resistance and is seemingly back testing it as support. This does not mean 'go long' if confirmed, but a warning that we may see a rally to 4000. This is not the start of a new bull market, but more likely a blow off top is in the making.

Trade active:
This is starting to look very scary. Just as before a bearish divergence reveals itself (circled in black).

There's a potential 50% drop to support.

Trade closed manually:
New 10-day candle confirms support on previous resistance. A major upward move is now likely.

Comment:
A lot of fear in the market right now. Expectations are for a sell off. I've a feeling the exact opposite might happen.

Comment:
Price action lands on the 2-day / 50-day EMA. Is the party over now? Or will it be more of the same..


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Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR
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