Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Invest at your own risk.
Feedback is more than welcome. Please let me know whether you agree or disagree with my analysis and why.
Talking points:
- The economy is not the market, but the US administration is treating it that way. Most of the money it's spending is intended to revive the market, not help out the economy. Most of the fed’s intervention does not help small businesses that depend on continuous cash flows. I think the failure of these business will be the root cause of a recession. The fed has already executed a possible inflation-causing QE (again, to help the markets only). In other words, the fed is giving the late bull-market CPR after its defibrillators failed.
- Although it is probable that the virus has already peaked, its economic implications have just begun. I believe we are currently in the contraction stage with the recession stage ahead of us. The economy will need sometime to get back to pre-pandemic conditions. These upcoming economic implications are incorrectly reflected by the current market price as it puts us in a bull market from December 2018's low.
Feedback is more than welcome. Please let me know whether you agree or disagree with my analysis and why.
Talking points:
- The economy is not the market, but the US administration is treating it that way. Most of the money it's spending is intended to revive the market, not help out the economy. Most of the fed’s intervention does not help small businesses that depend on continuous cash flows. I think the failure of these business will be the root cause of a recession. The fed has already executed a possible inflation-causing QE (again, to help the markets only). In other words, the fed is giving the late bull-market CPR after its defibrillators failed.
- Although it is probable that the virus has already peaked, its economic implications have just begun. I believe we are currently in the contraction stage with the recession stage ahead of us. The economy will need sometime to get back to pre-pandemic conditions. These upcoming economic implications are incorrectly reflected by the current market price as it puts us in a bull market from December 2018's low.