investinfamily

SPX Future Projection Analysis *Future spike detected*

Long
TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
SPX What's happening on the May 1, 2020? Checking the United States Economic calendar. This is what I found that could be the cause of the increase volatility on that day:
1) Core Price PCE Index: Forecast is 1.7%, Previous was 1.8%...May drop further than anticipated.
2) Employment Cost Index: Forecast is 0.7%, Previous was 0.7%..."The Employment Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD." ...Will this be 0.8%+? I think so.
3) PCE Price Index..."The PCE price index, also referred to as the PCE deflator, is a United States-wide indicator of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
4) Personal Spending (Month to Month) Forecast is -6.5%, Previous was 0.2%...Maybe reading will show less than negative forecast.
5) Chicago PMI
While these reading can flip the forecast; volatility will increase. So, for all Option holders, check your Vega. If you don't know what Vega is, don't do options until you understand the Greeks.
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.