For the last 18 months the US stock market has been in one of the most powerful and persistent rallies ever. The last time there was a rally of this duration was late 1994 to mid - 1996 which was in Elliott wave terms the third of a third wave up of a decade long bull move from late 1990 to early 2000.
Since April 2021 several momentum and sentiment indicators have had very bearish readings, yet the rally continues.
Time now becomes the most important factor. Late August to early September has been a time zone when some of the most significant US stock market peaks have been made. Early September 1929 just prior to the crash. Late August 1987 just prior to the crash. Early September 2000 saw the S&P 500 (SPX) make the second peak of a double top which preceded a two year bear market.
Short-term it appears the SPX has been forming an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle which could be at or near completion as of the close on 09/03/21. If it is complete there could be a thrust up to the SPX 4565 to 4575 area. Based upon an alternate wave count there could be major Fibonacci resistance in the SPX 4570 area. This alternate count could be examined in a future post - depending on market action.
If there's no move to a new SPX highs on 09/07/21, a move below SPX 4515.80 implies a major top is in place.
The next one or two trading days could be the most important for 2021. The termination of the bull move since March 2020 and possibly the climax of the secular bull market since March 2009 could be near.
Mark
Since April 2021 several momentum and sentiment indicators have had very bearish readings, yet the rally continues.
Time now becomes the most important factor. Late August to early September has been a time zone when some of the most significant US stock market peaks have been made. Early September 1929 just prior to the crash. Late August 1987 just prior to the crash. Early September 2000 saw the S&P 500 (SPX) make the second peak of a double top which preceded a two year bear market.
Short-term it appears the SPX has been forming an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle which could be at or near completion as of the close on 09/03/21. If it is complete there could be a thrust up to the SPX 4565 to 4575 area. Based upon an alternate wave count there could be major Fibonacci resistance in the SPX 4570 area. This alternate count could be examined in a future post - depending on market action.
If there's no move to a new SPX highs on 09/07/21, a move below SPX 4515.80 implies a major top is in place.
The next one or two trading days could be the most important for 2021. The termination of the bull move since March 2020 and possibly the climax of the secular bull market since March 2009 could be near.
Mark