The target would make some sense if the market was "sensible" and valuation-based. It hasn't been for a very long time ... . With the Shiller P/E at 29.22 versus a mean of 16.72, it is arguably overvalued relative to mean by a whopping 74%. It's even overvalued relative to a trailing 12 of 22.34 versus a mean of 15.79 by 40-odd percent (and a trailing 12, mind you, that hasn't taken into account the full pain of the pandemic). To put a statistical bent on things, the options market is pricing in the probabililty of a move to 155 (a 50% correction) by year end at <1%. That being said, no one really anticipated how deep and quick the mid-March sell-off would be, so -- while a statistical unlikelihood -- weirder and seemingly less likely shit has happened over time.
As of today I'm 90% puts and was hedging as we go. I wouldn't be surprised if its tonight to catch all the new investors off guard. No volume and all propped up by the fed. Last big MOC but on 6/29 were all covid friendly stocks. And just saw a VXX put for 1.8M last minute. Lots of Energy buys, Gold, and belive it or not, camping companies and fishing companies. This will be the worst we've ever seen in the economy.