This series has followed a path since May 2020 using weekly data and Price Percent Oscillator ( PPO ). A PPO event trigger has been used for comparison against 14 previous large scale market declines over the last 100 years. Progress updates have been published using a monthly series of charts at TradingView.
We are entering week 42 of 52 since PPO trigger crossing upward at May 2020 following prior low in March 2020. This is the 15th event compared to 14 previous historic market declines of similar large magnitude.
* Average of prior 14 events: +26.91% after week 41
* 2020 as 15th event: +28.95% after week 41
Note the chart's "Start" yellow arrow for comparison beginning at the PPO /Signal event trigger on 5/18/2020.
The Average gain for the 14 historic events at week 52 is +34.44% (forward from time of PPO crossing) shown using a second Yellow arrow for May 2021.
The current recovery is trending above average and can be compared to previous near/above average events plus average trend for 14 previous events. Interestingly, 7 of 14 were above average after week 41. The current result ranks 7th among the above average outcomes. Five of the previous above average outcomes finished higher than the eventual average after 52 weeks, with the lowest of the 6 the exception finishing lower than average. However, one of the below average eventually finished higher after week 52. Eventually all (prior 6 above and 1 from below) finished higher than the current event's 26.91% result as of close 2/26/2021.
Looking ahead and comparing previous events at week 52:
6 finished > 38% higher than week 52 average (including 4 between 38%-49%: 1921, 1942, 1958, 2009 and 1 at 58% higher: 1982, and 1 at 86% higher: 1932)
1 above average at week 41 finished below week 52 average: (1970)
1 laggard at week 41 rallied and finished above week 52 average (1958 included in the 6 listed above). It compensated for 1970 falling below average.
7 remaining laggards continued to lag and finished below the 52 week average (1940, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1988, 2001, 2002).
If the current path follows history, then downside after 52 weeks may be limited and upside is attractive with only 11 weeks remaining until benchmark week 52.
Fibonacci levels are shown using retracement from peak to low in March 2020.
We are entering week 42 of 52 since PPO trigger crossing upward at May 2020 following prior low in March 2020. This is the 15th event compared to 14 previous historic market declines of similar large magnitude.
* Average of prior 14 events: +26.91% after week 41
* 2020 as 15th event: +28.95% after week 41
Note the chart's "Start" yellow arrow for comparison beginning at the PPO /Signal event trigger on 5/18/2020.
The Average gain for the 14 historic events at week 52 is +34.44% (forward from time of PPO crossing) shown using a second Yellow arrow for May 2021.
The current recovery is trending above average and can be compared to previous near/above average events plus average trend for 14 previous events. Interestingly, 7 of 14 were above average after week 41. The current result ranks 7th among the above average outcomes. Five of the previous above average outcomes finished higher than the eventual average after 52 weeks, with the lowest of the 6 the exception finishing lower than average. However, one of the below average eventually finished higher after week 52. Eventually all (prior 6 above and 1 from below) finished higher than the current event's 26.91% result as of close 2/26/2021.
Looking ahead and comparing previous events at week 52:
6 finished > 38% higher than week 52 average (including 4 between 38%-49%: 1921, 1942, 1958, 2009 and 1 at 58% higher: 1982, and 1 at 86% higher: 1932)
1 above average at week 41 finished below week 52 average: (1970)
1 laggard at week 41 rallied and finished above week 52 average (1958 included in the 6 listed above). It compensated for 1970 falling below average.
7 remaining laggards continued to lag and finished below the 52 week average (1940, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1988, 2001, 2002).
If the current path follows history, then downside after 52 weeks may be limited and upside is attractive with only 11 weeks remaining until benchmark week 52.
Fibonacci levels are shown using retracement from peak to low in March 2020.