supere

A rare triple zig zag correction?

Short
SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
This may be my final attempt to classify the covid rally from a traditional elliott wave bearish standpoint. The length of the rally has far exceeded all expectations and can really only be comparable to the initial rally during the 1929-1932 crash now. However, that rally only made it to about the 0.5 fibonacci, whereas we are approaching a double top today.

I attempted calling the top after what appeared to be a "zig zag" pattern in May. That was a failure.
I then attempted calling the top after what appeared to be a "double zig zag" in June. That was also a failure.
Today, the last remaining bearish wave count I can come up with is the rare "triple zig zag" that should end very soon, likely after filling the gap at 3330.
There may be other bearish possibilities, but they go beyond the scope of my knowledge.
Therefore beyond the triple zig zag formation, the next most bearish scenario I could see is a fifth wave to ATHs. All other alternatives would be even more bullish .

Given the current socio-economic conditions, sentiment measurements, extreme technical levels, choppiness , divergences, and bizarre cross-asset correlations, I still have an incredibly hard time seeing how we are still in a 12 year extended bull market. However, the price action continues to defy all of these odds, so what can I say!

Good luck with your trading all!

Comments

The majority thinks is going to continue going up, so your call seems the most profitable to wreck the major amount of traders, therefore a very high chance to happen. Bears deserve the right to be right in the near future IMO.
+4 Reply
why can't it be an expanding triangle from 2018 with the final wave e hitting 1800-2000?
+1 Reply
Invalidated
+1 Reply
supere poister198
@poister198, Not unless ATHs are exceeded.
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tuparkshakur poister198
@poister198, i pray and pray that you are net long.
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poister198 tuparkshakur
@tuparkshakur, net long but trimmed long position since it hit 3300 level, expecting 3400 before a pullback happens but at worst to 3100 levels, not a drop to some unreal 2100. 0% chance of happening unless nukes are raining down the skies, at which point money will have no value
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great call .
same here , since May expecting the turnaround. Now sometimes i feel dummy by trying to predicting and not to trade the trend.
still a little hope on that gap filled today , friday come numbers .

hard to trade market...... easy after the fact
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Your indicators might be right. Under normal circumstances we could crash here. However, this is not a normal circumstance. The Federal Reserve has decided to buy 1/3 of the junk bond markets. We are also printing billions of dollars of money every month. Zero rates. And there is dollar deflation. No one really understands this "New" market. I think we watch closely and see what happens. If the government support is withdrawn, the market will fall and some prices will increase and some prices will decrease. Many markets are starting to recover now. Although I love indicators, you need a bit more hard evidence to make a crash predictions, IMHO. There is an opportunity to use the cross-asset correlations to make a lot of money - the trick is knowing which will go up in the future, and which will go down. IMHO, buy a few ounces of gold. And maybe have some cash on hand, in case market does crash (like Warren Buffet).
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supere tradeBob1
@tradeBob1, This is not a new market. Central banks have been doing the same garbage since 1929, and even prior to that under the guise of different names. It will end in the same way.
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Great analysis
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