The S&P no longer has the same level of weakness it did in 2000 and 2008 and here's why:
In 2000, price stayed below the 50-week sma for a duration of 66 weeks in a row before closing above it. In 2008, it stayed below for 53 weeks in a row before closing above it. In 2022, it only stayed below it for 34 weeks in a row. This inability to stay below the sma makes this situation different from the two crashes in the sense that the 50-week sma just couldn't hold price down as long. The 50-week is a close approximation to the 200-day. It is now positive sloping.
To be fair to those who remain bearish despite the dwindling technical arguments, 34 weeks was a longer duration than we’ve seen since the crash of 2008. This downturn did start off aggressive but the similarity to previous crashes ended in January 2023 when we closed above the 50-week after 34 weeks below it.
I’m leaning bullish since it looks like we’re not headed down any more and when we're not headed down, the only other direction stocks tend to go is up.
In 2000, price stayed below the 50-week sma for a duration of 66 weeks in a row before closing above it. In 2008, it stayed below for 53 weeks in a row before closing above it. In 2022, it only stayed below it for 34 weeks in a row. This inability to stay below the sma makes this situation different from the two crashes in the sense that the 50-week sma just couldn't hold price down as long. The 50-week is a close approximation to the 200-day. It is now positive sloping.
To be fair to those who remain bearish despite the dwindling technical arguments, 34 weeks was a longer duration than we’ve seen since the crash of 2008. This downturn did start off aggressive but the similarity to previous crashes ended in January 2023 when we closed above the 50-week after 34 weeks below it.
I’m leaning bullish since it looks like we’re not headed down any more and when we're not headed down, the only other direction stocks tend to go is up.