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Buy in May and Go Away?

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 has tumbled as Jerome Powell abruptly takes away the punch bowl and geopolitical tensions mount. But there could be signs of prices nearing a bottom – at least for now.

The main pattern on today’s chart is the descending channel along the highs of January and March, plus the lows of February and May. Prices closed back at that line on Monday.

Second, the index has returned to the 3984 area where it consolidated before breaking out in March 2021. Can old resistance become new support?

Third, the zigzagging decline may now represent an A-B-C correction nearing its completion.

The 10-year Treasury yield is another potentially important chart because its surge this year has hammered the Nasdaq and growth stocks. TNX is now close to the 3.25 percent level where it peaked in October 2018. If this area holds as resistance, it could ease some of the pain in equities:

Recent sessions have also brought signs of the inflationary trend slowing. Metals and fertilizers have mostly declined in the last two weeks, while crude oil is under pressure. Less upward pressure in commodities could also calm anxieties about a 1970s-style crisis.

It’s still early overall, but some potential positives are emerging. Will buyers take over this month and turn the old saying on its head?

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