S&P 500: Maximum greed priced in for this week. Next week lower
If stocks were truly bullish, then markets in the US and Europe hadn't taken any pause in rallying strongly higher today - one day after the Brexit negotiation talks officially started on June 19, 2017. Also on Monday the "VIX" index and also the "SKEW" index closed both green together on the same day while the "S&P 500" and"Dow Jones Industrial Average" both made a new all-time high. That was very odd. This tells me the peak of complacency might be near, at least for the near-term.
"Britain and EU agree to focus on divorce at start of Brexit talks", "Monday’s talks marked the start of what will be one of the most politically sensitive international negotiations of modern times. "
www.ft.com/content/3...e7-9fed-c19e2700005f
Short entry: 2440-2450
Stop loss: 2455
Minimum target 2410-2390
Extreme target: 2240
Risk: 5-10
Reward: 30-60 (up to 210 with the extreme target)
Recent ZH news, from June 19-20, sorted from newest to oldest. Most important is the opinion article by El-Erian.
WTI Plunges To 7-Month Lows - Enters Bear Market As HY Bonds Crater
www.zerohedge.com/ne...s-enters-bear-market
China Yield Curve Slumps To Record Inversion Despite Massive Liquidity Injection
www.zerohedge.com/ne...-liquidity-injection
El-Erian Warns "The Fed No Longer Has Your Back"
www.zerohedge.com/ne...longer-has-your-back
Fed 'Normalization' Will Expose Markets To Political Chaos
www.zerohedge.com/ne...ose-markets-politica
S&P, Dow Hit Record Highs, Nasdaq Lags As VIX Tumbles Near 9 Handle
www.zerohedge.com/ne...umbles-near-9-handle
Global Stocks Jump, Dow Futs At New All Time Highs As Brexit Talks Begin
www.zerohedge.com/ne...s-brexit-talks-begin
"Britain and EU agree to focus on divorce at start of Brexit talks", "Monday’s talks marked the start of what will be one of the most politically sensitive international negotiations of modern times. "
www.ft.com/content/3...e7-9fed-c19e2700005f
Short entry: 2440-2450
Stop loss: 2455
Minimum target 2410-2390
Extreme target: 2240
Risk: 5-10
Reward: 30-60 (up to 210 with the extreme target)
Recent ZH news, from June 19-20, sorted from newest to oldest. Most important is the opinion article by El-Erian.
WTI Plunges To 7-Month Lows - Enters Bear Market As HY Bonds Crater
www.zerohedge.com/ne...s-enters-bear-market
China Yield Curve Slumps To Record Inversion Despite Massive Liquidity Injection
www.zerohedge.com/ne...-liquidity-injection
El-Erian Warns "The Fed No Longer Has Your Back"
www.zerohedge.com/ne...longer-has-your-back
Fed 'Normalization' Will Expose Markets To Political Chaos
www.zerohedge.com/ne...ose-markets-politica
S&P, Dow Hit Record Highs, Nasdaq Lags As VIX Tumbles Near 9 Handle
www.zerohedge.com/ne...umbles-near-9-handle
Global Stocks Jump, Dow Futs At New All Time Highs As Brexit Talks Begin
www.zerohedge.com/ne...s-brexit-talks-begin
Trade closed: target reached:
Target hit twice: My minimum short target of 2410, which I had set on June 20 has been achieved two times in the last five days.
On June 29 the S&P 500 reached a low of 2405.70 and yesterday on July 06 it made a higher low at 2407.70 and closed at 2409.75 right below my 2410 short target.
Today the S&P 500 opened higher and is currently trading above 2415, which implies we have seen the lows of this week already. Therefore I recommend to close the majority of shorts (opened at my short entry recommendation of 2440-2450), because next week the S&P 500 has now higher odds of going upwards again.
On June 29 the S&P 500 reached a low of 2405.70 and yesterday on July 06 it made a higher low at 2407.70 and closed at 2409.75 right below my 2410 short target.
Today the S&P 500 opened higher and is currently trading above 2415, which implies we have seen the lows of this week already. Therefore I recommend to close the majority of shorts (opened at my short entry recommendation of 2440-2450), because next week the S&P 500 has now higher odds of going upwards again.
