Hey all,
Warren Buffett is known for saying: "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy," and oppositely, "Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful." Normally, this holds true. But the markets haven't fallen enough to warrant this sort of thinking; even though markets remain very fearful, we have yet to see a capitulation-type move across the markets. I think it's coming, and I will eventually bet on it- now in an incubator hedge fund of my own!!! Right now, I'm net long, but I'm going to be quick to take profits on many of my long positions if we have follow through upwards. I am half expecting SPY to reach ~389, but I won't be betting on it the entire way; I will merely be sitting on the sidelines waiting to short at that level. IF WE REACH SPY ~389, I FULLY EXPECT THAT TO BE A PEAK IN THE MARKETS.
This market has similarities to 2000 and 2008, but at the current stage, I think everybody should be referring to 2008; no matter which way I look at it via TA, I circle back to the conclusion that we will see a 2008-style waterfall drop ahead- there are too many sectors that are just way too high up and have to cover too much ground to the downside in too little time to not waterfall- especially agriculture(MOO), solar(TAN), retail(XRT).
Though I am a TA trader, I do aim to back most of my trades with fundamentals. When it comes to fundamentals, everything is deteriorating, fast- I almost feel weird betting on a bounce as I have been lately considering how bad things are fundamentally. Funny enough the worst of what is going on in the macro world has yet to take effect- rate hikes haven't been felt as policy works with a lag.
Be careful out there guys. Personally, I'm working my a** off to get an incubator hedge fund started ASAP so that I can show that I know what I'm doing, and can catch the future capitulation move down in the markets. Many of you are traders, and may greatly benefit from such a waterfall move in the markets; others of you are investors. If any of you would appreciate my two cents on how you could position yourself from a move like the one I am forecasting, I'd love to offer my help.
Warren Buffett is known for saying: "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy," and oppositely, "Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful." Normally, this holds true. But the markets haven't fallen enough to warrant this sort of thinking; even though markets remain very fearful, we have yet to see a capitulation-type move across the markets. I think it's coming, and I will eventually bet on it- now in an incubator hedge fund of my own!!! Right now, I'm net long, but I'm going to be quick to take profits on many of my long positions if we have follow through upwards. I am half expecting SPY to reach ~389, but I won't be betting on it the entire way; I will merely be sitting on the sidelines waiting to short at that level. IF WE REACH SPY ~389, I FULLY EXPECT THAT TO BE A PEAK IN THE MARKETS.
This market has similarities to 2000 and 2008, but at the current stage, I think everybody should be referring to 2008; no matter which way I look at it via TA, I circle back to the conclusion that we will see a 2008-style waterfall drop ahead- there are too many sectors that are just way too high up and have to cover too much ground to the downside in too little time to not waterfall- especially agriculture(MOO), solar(TAN), retail(XRT).
Though I am a TA trader, I do aim to back most of my trades with fundamentals. When it comes to fundamentals, everything is deteriorating, fast- I almost feel weird betting on a bounce as I have been lately considering how bad things are fundamentally. Funny enough the worst of what is going on in the macro world has yet to take effect- rate hikes haven't been felt as policy works with a lag.
Be careful out there guys. Personally, I'm working my a** off to get an incubator hedge fund started ASAP so that I can show that I know what I'm doing, and can catch the future capitulation move down in the markets. Many of you are traders, and may greatly benefit from such a waterfall move in the markets; others of you are investors. If any of you would appreciate my two cents on how you could position yourself from a move like the one I am forecasting, I'd love to offer my help.