Audacity618

The Grand Pitchfork

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
471 2 12
A weekly chart and pitchfork using Black Monday as a starting point and the Dot-com Bubble/Bust as the top and bottom. You'll notice a lot of support levels created with this long term time frame (notes on chart). My favorite is the median line rejection just before the 2008 financial crisis.

I've also found an indicator that has worked twice in the last two crash that can help signal the next big bear market. Using the difference between the 1 week and 200 weekly moving average, a trend line is formed while climbing into the bull market. If that trend line breaks down, the bear market has begun. As you can see, we have not broken our trend line yet, but this indicator should leave plenty of time to withdraw.
Interesting and thought-provoking chart. I am curious why you chose black monday as the starting point. It seems a bit arbitrary. To play devil's advocate, say I change the scale to a log scale, because after all we're dealing with such an enormous time period. Then I throw a price channel on there, continuing to use your black monday as a base point, and connecting the lows. Now we have a bull market that has room to run.
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Audacity618 FractalTrader
Hi FractalTrader, Thanks for the comment. First off, this is definitely more of a thought-provoking and experimental idea than traditional TA. I agree that log view is more appropriate on a long-term scale; there seems to be many channels that exist, yet sometimes those channels breakdown (see chart). I guess the thought of this chart was that since 2000 we've been moving more sideways with the last two crashes than exponentially; from a motivational perspective I wanted to see if there was some way to have predicted the 2007 top. I actually chose the starting point before I realized it was Black Monday because it looked looked like the most clear low point before the 90s bull market. It could be just luck how well the pitchfork fits but it amazes me how well the index has behaved around the trend lines.

Regards,

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