The Grand Pitchfork (Repost)

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
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A weekly chart and pitchfork using Black Monday as a starting point and the Dot-com Bubble/Bust as the top and bottom. You'll notice a lot of support levels created with this long term time frame (notes on chart). My favorite is the median line rejection just before the 2008 financial crisis.

I've also found an indicator that has worked twice in the last two crash that can help signal the next big bear market. Using the difference between the 1 week and 200 weekly moving average, a trend line is formed while climbing into the bull market. If that trend line breaks down, the bear market has begun.

i tested similar approach, but on monthly, started from cycle low 09/08/1982 and ... the outcome is just opposite, check my idea

of course, only market will tell, which view is right, but spx is in uncharted teritory after decisive ath break, so you can only guess, where can market stop - i would rather expect something "really unexpected", beyond imagination of (most) retail traders

on monthly chart, there really is no plausible sell signal (music is still playing), the trend is very solid, the last hammer on big volume is VERY SIGNIFICANT - if you are betting it was a fake, good luck - maybe was, but such a huge price action has a reason and consequences

btw. your last green macd tl is way too steep and the band of macd in 2013 is too narrow (accumulation) - what are you classifiying as break seems to me rather as pullback - maybe your last tl should be parrallel to prevoiuos ones with low in 8/2013 - ath break

also, i would expect your macd line making new high above 450 to confirm new ath in price

and, according to ew - correction pattern ABC starting from 2000 ended in 2009, so i would rather put the AP low point there

take care
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