SP:SPX   The S&P 500 Index
As long the downtrend resistance line remains intact and the market doesn't make a new all time high, I think one should assume the market is going down, just because the downtrend line is older than the counter-trend line.

First strong support is around 2073/72, where lays a confluence between the counter-trend line, the Kijun Sen (is flat), the top of the cloud (which is thick at this time) and the encounter of Chikou Span with past price and past flat Kijun Sen.

In terms of guessing with Elliott Wave , we could be in wave C of an expanded flat correction for wave 2 (blue projection on the chart, confirmed by a new all time high) or we could be starting a strong wave 3 to resume the downtrend (red projection on the chart, confirmed by a low below 1810,10).

So, after deep considerations, I reach the conclusion that the market can either go up or down... See how important it is to make deep considerations?
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