S&P to head higher to $3931-$4039, then reverse and break lows?
Similar to my analysis on BTC, I think we're in for a large bull trap here.
In the very immediate term, I could see the S&P retracing down to support at $3686 or so before making a higher low, and then moving higher.
Largely, I think the targets on the upside to look for over the next 2-3 weeks are $3931 and $4039. That's where I'd start getting cautious again. If we can't surpass those levels to the upside, that sets up a big move lower. There is a small possibility that price can make it all the way up to $4110-4120 or so, but if it does that, and can't surpass that level, it puts in a double top and still sets up a move lower.
Really to rule out the possibility of going lower, we'd have to convincingly break $4120 and test it as support.
I think the next 2-3 weeks will be positive risk. Then after that, I think towards the back half of November, there will be some catalyst that brings the markets lower (maybe elections, maybe something else?).
If this plays out, I see price breaking the recent lows and finding support somewhere in the low $3k region. Either at $3360-$3288. Thats' where I'd want to be a buyer of risk for the mid-term (1-4 months).
After that point, I think we'll see a decent rally in risk into Feb-March and that's where I'd want to be cautious again as I think we'll see one last leg down in equities that takes us below $3k.
Good luck. Let's see how it all plays out.
In the very immediate term, I could see the S&P retracing down to support at $3686 or so before making a higher low, and then moving higher.
Largely, I think the targets on the upside to look for over the next 2-3 weeks are $3931 and $4039. That's where I'd start getting cautious again. If we can't surpass those levels to the upside, that sets up a big move lower. There is a small possibility that price can make it all the way up to $4110-4120 or so, but if it does that, and can't surpass that level, it puts in a double top and still sets up a move lower.
Really to rule out the possibility of going lower, we'd have to convincingly break $4120 and test it as support.
I think the next 2-3 weeks will be positive risk. Then after that, I think towards the back half of November, there will be some catalyst that brings the markets lower (maybe elections, maybe something else?).
If this plays out, I see price breaking the recent lows and finding support somewhere in the low $3k region. Either at $3360-$3288. Thats' where I'd want to be a buyer of risk for the mid-term (1-4 months).
After that point, I think we'll see a decent rally in risk into Feb-March and that's where I'd want to be cautious again as I think we'll see one last leg down in equities that takes us below $3k.
Good luck. Let's see how it all plays out.
Comment:
Other possibility short term is that we find support at $3730 or so (instead of 3670) and move higher from there. Regardless, focus should be on top resistances before lower.
Comment:
Looks like the second scenario played out- found support at $3730 and is now wanting higher.
Comment:
Think we're headed down from here
Comment:
About to tag $393, hit it in futures. Then we get the reversal
Comment:
Welp looking like we do make it to the upper resistance... Let's see.
Comment:
$403 tapped. Let's see what happens moving forward.
Comment:
I am now positioned very short
Comment:
The calm before the storm...
Comment:
Alright, as price action is forming, the chart is starting to become clearer.
Looks like we're going to hit the upper resistance, and then Monday Dec 5 will be the pivot which turns the market lower. The next pivot I have (which I didn't put on the chart) is Thursday Dec 8th which I think will be the bottom of the move.
What makes most sense to me here is that we get a really sharp, fast drop. People are super bullish now calling for a new bull run. I think this move would catch them off guard, if it were to play out.
If the move happens quickly, I think there would be a bunch of late shorts piling on and think we're going way lower. I think we'll bottom in the $3360-3288 range and we'll get a bunch of people thinking we're going to $3k, trap them and move higher after the fed meeting on the 13-14 and options expiration on the 16th.
Then I think we'll get the "Christmas rally" from the lows that everyone is expecting.
Let's see if it happens.
Looks like we're going to hit the upper resistance, and then Monday Dec 5 will be the pivot which turns the market lower. The next pivot I have (which I didn't put on the chart) is Thursday Dec 8th which I think will be the bottom of the move.
What makes most sense to me here is that we get a really sharp, fast drop. People are super bullish now calling for a new bull run. I think this move would catch them off guard, if it were to play out.
If the move happens quickly, I think there would be a bunch of late shorts piling on and think we're going way lower. I think we'll bottom in the $3360-3288 range and we'll get a bunch of people thinking we're going to $3k, trap them and move higher after the fed meeting on the 13-14 and options expiration on the 16th.
Then I think we'll get the "Christmas rally" from the lows that everyone is expecting.
Let's see if it happens.
Comment:
Added to a lot of my shorts this morning on the spike up. I'm either right, or completely wrong. Playing it all through options so the worst outcome is I lose my premium. We should know more by next week. *Crosses fingers* Good luck.
Comment:
I will have to say, confused by today's price action. I added even more to my shorts this morning with expirations at the end of December and into January. Most of mine expire on the 16th. I feel like something is wrong beneath the surface of the market but all of the cracks haven't had any follow through. Let's see what happens next week.
Comment:
Alright market clearly turning. Pivot seems to be playing out to the downside.
Comment:
Unlikely that the bottom comes by Thursday. Pivots can mean many things - either acceleration of trend or turning point. Leaning towards the former now. Acceleration of trend down.
Comment:
Quiet day today... calm before the storm?
Comment:
Should get a large daily candle lower with that PPI print. I think higher inflation will be very negative assets going into next week- and the CPI print and FOMC meeting will likely continue to hurt markets.
Looks like yesterdays pivot was a turning point - we had a bounce and high yesterday. Today lower.
The next pivot I have is Tuesday Dec 13th (FOMC day) and Dec 30th. Now thinking that we'll get the bottom around the 21st of December instead of next week.
I do think this move down will likely finish before the holidays. I've been buying more puts for 23 and 30th expiration.
Let's see what happens from here.
Looks like yesterdays pivot was a turning point - we had a bounce and high yesterday. Today lower.
The next pivot I have is Tuesday Dec 13th (FOMC day) and Dec 30th. Now thinking that we'll get the bottom around the 21st of December instead of next week.
I do think this move down will likely finish before the holidays. I've been buying more puts for 23 and 30th expiration.
Let's see what happens from here.
Comment:
Anytime the market pumps, I keep adding to shorts. Now tons of puts staggered from Dec 16th w/ a majority expiring on the 30th-jan 6 and additional ones that expire on Jan 20th.
Biggest shorts = NFLX, TLT, AAPL, TSLA, SPY, QQQ, SLV, GLD
I could be wrong of course, but nothing structurally has changed.
Base case is still fall into end of year, bounce through march, fall from March - June. June = Bottom.
Let's see.
Biggest shorts = NFLX, TLT, AAPL, TSLA, SPY, QQQ, SLV, GLD
I could be wrong of course, but nothing structurally has changed.
Base case is still fall into end of year, bounce through march, fall from March - June. June = Bottom.
Let's see.
Comment:
Already up on everything bought this morning at open. Looks to me like that was the final pump and we should see downside continuation here.
Comment:
Timing has been a bit off, but finally getting some follow through on the downside. Next big levels are ~$371, $355, then $332
Comment:
Alright, well clearly the second half of this did not play out as expected. I'm currently leaning bullish in the near term here. Will have to reassess after I see more price action play out.
I've bought a lot of stocks over the last couple of days (tech).
I've bought a lot of stocks over the last couple of days (tech).