Since Oct 2011 S&P 500 started the bull run after the happened of "Black Monday" (the US and the global stock market crashed following the credit rating downgrade by Standard and Poors)
According to the chart, the index follows the EMA signals quite closely.
Red EMA = Momentum movement
Blue EMA = Mid term trend
Yellow EMA = Long term trend
Firstly, as we can see from the S&P 500 index it will only touch the long term trend signal when a major event has happened.
First touch Long term trend signal
- During the 2015–2016 stock market selloff, also known as The Great Fall of China, was the period of decline in the value of stock prices globally that occurred between June 2015 to June 2016. During that period, the S&P 500 index fell to the lowest 1810.10 points (Feb 2016) but it able to stand above the long term trend (yellow EMA).
Second touch Long term trend signal
- 2018 US-China Trade War, interest rates and uncertainty in government policy all helped to create a loss of more than 10 percent, as of Dec 27. During that period, the S&P 500 index fell to the lowest 2346.60 points (Dec 2018) but it able to stand above the long term trend (yellow EMA).
As above we can see the S&P 500 the yellow EMA is an important support line for the S&P 500. As long as it can sustain above the overall trend still consider a positive direction.
Secondly, according to the trend first higher high (period Oct 2011-Jul 2015) at 2134.70 points and created approximately 98% gains for the trend. So if we follow its behavior we projected 98% gains for the next trend it could hit 3600 points to be the next resistance or higher high point.
However, from my projection, the S&P 500 to hit 3600 points could have another 16% upside from the current position. The first support level at range 2830 points/ 8% downside, final support at range 2570 points/17% downside.
According to the chart, the index follows the EMA signals quite closely.
Red EMA = Momentum movement
Blue EMA = Mid term trend
Yellow EMA = Long term trend
Firstly, as we can see from the S&P 500 index it will only touch the long term trend signal when a major event has happened.
First touch Long term trend signal
- During the 2015–2016 stock market selloff, also known as The Great Fall of China, was the period of decline in the value of stock prices globally that occurred between June 2015 to June 2016. During that period, the S&P 500 index fell to the lowest 1810.10 points (Feb 2016) but it able to stand above the long term trend (yellow EMA).
Second touch Long term trend signal
- 2018 US-China Trade War, interest rates and uncertainty in government policy all helped to create a loss of more than 10 percent, as of Dec 27. During that period, the S&P 500 index fell to the lowest 2346.60 points (Dec 2018) but it able to stand above the long term trend (yellow EMA).
As above we can see the S&P 500 the yellow EMA is an important support line for the S&P 500. As long as it can sustain above the overall trend still consider a positive direction.
Secondly, according to the trend first higher high (period Oct 2011-Jul 2015) at 2134.70 points and created approximately 98% gains for the trend. So if we follow its behavior we projected 98% gains for the next trend it could hit 3600 points to be the next resistance or higher high point.
However, from my projection, the S&P 500 to hit 3600 points could have another 16% upside from the current position. The first support level at range 2830 points/ 8% downside, final support at range 2570 points/17% downside.