s&p 500 recovery over, ready to test low again(4196)

Today SPX completed its recovery(xx) after its wave 'Y', note that it has not penetrated inside wave 'W' territory.
wave 'Y' extended beyond 1.62% of wave 'W',
Hence as per EW rule one more wave 'Z' to unfold which has a definite relationship (between 62% or 162%)of wave 'W'.
Lets open our shorts,keeping stop loss 4582
Trading with minimum stop loss, conserve our capital in case of extension of wave 'xx'

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today SPX will hit the base (53) @ 4355 and bounce up to 4446 for (54)

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wave 52 will reach upto wave 51, its good to sell longs there ,but wait for shorts @4585

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I have not followed any machine data, street data, momentum, sma, ema, RSI, macd, then what has given me the confidence?
EW

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wave 5/3 finished with a confirmation of trend reversal, now the final reaction wave 5/4 is going up for 2 days

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4475(50%) to retrace for bullish bias

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Trade closed manually:

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with more than 3 positive bias the shorting idea is clossed today 17/02/22, depending upon friday's(18/02)trade next action will be updated,
25% probablity of downside is possible tom if the low,4365 breached
Happy trading

Comment:

SELL below 4400 on closing

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ODDS increased , support 4400 on daily closing failed ,
hence my trade is active now

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momentum candle shows downside

Trade closed: target reached:

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if the first target of 5th wave 4255 is not reached today then , s&p500 will extend its recovery wave of 5/2 till 10 th march, forget ukraine for 2 weeks

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with this I close the short trade idea , the index needs more time to come down, by the way we can switch to longs for 2 weeks

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everyone knew that market is bearish , but there is no evidence in price action, a controlled selling at 5th wave will become a bear trap

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buy calls for this week only