Cyning7

Where do U.S. stocks go under increasingly hawkish Fed policy?

Short
SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
On the evening of April 21
Powell said that he had begun to consider a 50-point rate hike in May and called the U.S. job market "unsustainably" booming.

However, Powell insisted that the Fed has the ability to make a soft landing for the economy;
San Francisco Fed President Daly said that several 50-point rate hikes may be needed, and one is not enough;
A few days ago, Bullard said that a 75-point rate hike should be considered.
Eagles are thriving.

If we look at the resumes of Fed officials we will find
that of the 11 Fed officials, only one has a formal job in the outside world,
two teach in college, and the rest have worked in the Fed all their lives...
that is, the real world It's so magical that it's run by a group of people living in an ivory tower.

On the evening of April 21, the amplitude of the Nasdaq from high to low was far more than 4%
The U.S. bond 10-year-5-year yield curve inverted again
U.S. bond futures implied a 100% probability of raising interest rates by 50 points in May.

However, housing prices in the United States continued to rise historically by 15% year-on-year
and the average house price reached a record high of $375,000
The ratio of house prices to real income is higher than that of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008
and the 30-year mortgage interest rate has soared far more than 5%
the highest in more than a decade.

The implied rent in the inflation calculation has also started to skyrocket.
New York rents have skyrocketed by 30%
With the historic bonus of Wall Street This summer
a vacation home in Hampton is renting for $1 million a month
Now the investment bank of Wall Street hires an intern for a month
A salary of up to $20,000 a month.

After the epic release of water in 2020
Powell has repeatedly emphasized that inflation is "temporary"
Later, he changed his tune, saying that inflation may not be temporary
and admitting that the Fed's monetary policy has caused inflation.
Now, Powell has begun to insist that the Fed can fully realize the United States. Economic "soft landing" ...
the wolf is at it again.

Hong Hao

Note: Except for the occasional divergence signal shared in the community
all the opinions and teachings of this id are only technical analysis
trend forecasting and learning use
and cannot be used as a basis for opening orders.

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