The_Unwind

Market on Hold.. Targeting Fed Meeting Dec.19,2018

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
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S+P 500 2 Hour Chart shows a Clear Rollover Top
In Place from the All High High of 2940 this fall.
On that point, the evidence cannot be disputed
by either Bulls or Bears.

However, what has come after that is much more muddy.
A Definite Support Base has been established between S+P 2640-2600.
Sharp Declines into that "Value Area" are being Bought by Big Money.
At the same time, Sharp Rallies back to the 2800 Area are being Sold By Big Money.

That defines a Big Money Trading Range between 2600 and 2800.
200 points of Chop, back and forth, neither side gaining the full advantage.

Rallies become Failures,
Yet Attempts to Break the Pattern to the Downside
like sharp Intra-Day Decline on 12/6,
are bought by Big Money Bulls, in the nick of time.

That is the reason why, I turned Neutral on the S+P on 12/6/18

We are bound inside a big time trading range.
For traders the volatility here is heaven,
offering opportunities on the long and short side,
depending on the weather :)

My guess is that things SHALL become Much Clearer
to the marketplace on 12/19/18,
when the FED holds its highly anticipated meeting
on Policy and Interest Rates in a couple weeks.

Until then, ,,,barring any unforeseen Big Surprises,
I think we are going to tread water here
back and forth, bound inside a large defined trading range,
frustrating both the bulls and bears longer term objectives
until Dec.19, 2018, when the Fed will reveal it's hand on Interest rates.

THE_UNWIND
12/7/18
NEW YORK





ok - i have a question: how come the last 2x 5M candles on VIX are up and last 2x 5M candles of SPX are still up? Are computers going side-ways ?! I see computing issues here...
Reply
The_Unwind LoLBeach
@LoLBeach,


VIX rally is showing divergence at the close, already disbelievers in the massive short covering rally
+1 Reply
LoLBeach The_Unwind
@The_Unwind, confirmed today.
Reply
Significant. Really significant. Downside headline risk today. Mueller report gets filed. Possible that many people including Trump himself are indicted today. Possibly a no trade day. Could be whiplash all over the place.
Reply
The_Unwind dedeburn
@dedeburn,

I don't think so Dede.
But please keep me posted if something big happens.
I'm planning to catch up on my sleep :)
+1 Reply
The_Unwind dedeburn
What did you know, and when did you know it ?
Holy....!
How did you know this was going to happen today?
Great call my friend.
I did not see this immediate downside retracement developing this rapidly.
I should have though.

Reply
The_Unwind dedeburn
@dedeburn,

What cued you off that this could be such a downside risk ?
Are you looking at any indicators that suggested this..?
Darn my friend. You are the man !
Reply
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