We are now in the first week of December, the last month of 2022. The bigger trend for the SPX is still down and bearish as you can see from chart.
If the FED maintain 0.5 interest rate cuts for this month and/or 0.25 for Jan 2023 next year, then I think the market will react positively. While there is still daily update on Russia war, notice the attention is not so much on it now.......It is dragging for too long, whatever damage has been factored in......
China, often blamed for this and that is also slowly relaxing its Covid-19 policies which is a good sign, thus you can see many Chinese A-stocks rally.
Looking at chart, the next few days will be crucial as the closing candles will determine the direction. Will it break out of the bearish trend and head towards 4302 target or come tumbling back down to 3600 (first 3813 to close gap) to form an inverse H&S pattern ?
If the FED maintain 0.5 interest rate cuts for this month and/or 0.25 for Jan 2023 next year, then I think the market will react positively. While there is still daily update on Russia war, notice the attention is not so much on it now.......It is dragging for too long, whatever damage has been factored in......
China, often blamed for this and that is also slowly relaxing its Covid-19 policies which is a good sign, thus you can see many Chinese A-stocks rally.
Looking at chart, the next few days will be crucial as the closing candles will determine the direction. Will it break out of the bearish trend and head towards 4302 target or come tumbling back down to 3600 (first 3813 to close gap) to form an inverse H&S pattern ?
Comment:
So, we have the first bearish sign now! It has broke down from the channel but let's wait for more confirmation tonight as it could be a bear trap. The closing candle shows weak buying at end of day although they tried to shore it up.....
Comment:
Highly possible that it will drop to close the gap of 3813 (see Dec 6 comments) after Fed's statement yesterday!
Comment:
Haha, the market has now nicely closed the gap between 9th and 10th Nov this year. The closing candle tonight will determine the next few days direction. So far, we have yet to hear any positive catalyst that might trigger the Christmas rally which many investors are awaiting........
Comment:
What a disappointment to many investors last night ! Thursday gain was albeit temporary and offers little hope to the year end rally!
The FEDs has to think thrice about raising interest rates next year as we witness falling inflation rates and increasing unemployment data thus far. I expect more retrenchment to come for next year which will spill to the non-tech sector.
In Singapore, the taxes are increased next year, food and transport inflation will not come down immediately. While the China reopening border bolster much good news, the government is nevertheless fearful of the spike in Covid-19 cases which is inevitable. Businesses involved in the hospitality , tourism, casino , theme parks will improve but they have to pay a price.
When the US government realised QT (quantitative tightening) is not working, they have no choice but regrettably resort to QE again. When? I don't know , much depends on the Q1 2023 data.
Many of the Tech stocks have fallen 50-80% and mind you, these are the IT giants of US - Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, etc and the overall Nasdaq index has fallen more than 60% from its peak. Many analysts are now shoring their funds back to China in view of the recent opening up news. They want to ride the wave and not missed it. But let's not forget China has yet to reach herd immunity stage which will take some time next year. So, it is a love hate relationship between many countries that depends on Chinese Consumer spending power and China. On one hand, they want these wealthy chinese to come and splurge their money while afraid of catching the Covid virus from them. There is no trade off since the virus is constantly mutating and new ones will form over time.
Therefore, I expect the market to remain volatile in Q1 2023 until we see some positive news from FEDs.
The FEDs has to think thrice about raising interest rates next year as we witness falling inflation rates and increasing unemployment data thus far. I expect more retrenchment to come for next year which will spill to the non-tech sector.
In Singapore, the taxes are increased next year, food and transport inflation will not come down immediately. While the China reopening border bolster much good news, the government is nevertheless fearful of the spike in Covid-19 cases which is inevitable. Businesses involved in the hospitality , tourism, casino , theme parks will improve but they have to pay a price.
When the US government realised QT (quantitative tightening) is not working, they have no choice but regrettably resort to QE again. When? I don't know , much depends on the Q1 2023 data.
Many of the Tech stocks have fallen 50-80% and mind you, these are the IT giants of US - Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, etc and the overall Nasdaq index has fallen more than 60% from its peak. Many analysts are now shoring their funds back to China in view of the recent opening up news. They want to ride the wave and not missed it. But let's not forget China has yet to reach herd immunity stage which will take some time next year. So, it is a love hate relationship between many countries that depends on Chinese Consumer spending power and China. On one hand, they want these wealthy chinese to come and splurge their money while afraid of catching the Covid virus from them. There is no trade off since the virus is constantly mutating and new ones will form over time.
Therefore, I expect the market to remain volatile in Q1 2023 until we see some positive news from FEDs.
Comment:
once again, we have reached the all important trend line resistance yesterday ! Will it be able to break out and continue the rally that perhaps compensate the Christmas Rally that was hugely missed by many ?
Bearing unforseen circumstances, I think the breakout is highly likely. Let's wait tonight for confirmation.
Bearing unforseen circumstances, I think the breakout is highly likely. Let's wait tonight for confirmation.
Comment:
Yes, we were disappointed once again that the price action fails to break out of the resistance (red line) and came tumbling down. SPX closed at 3898 price level. Hopefully, if it continues to fall, 3800 would be the support level to hold it before it deteriorate further. Already, we have heard some Feds officials saying the rate hike is going above 5% in the next round. Tighten your seat belt,it is going to be a wild ride
Comment:
those who keen to go LONG but has not, fret not. Here's the good news! It has broken out of the bearish trend line ,now we just wait for some decent pull back before going in to buy again. Congrats to those who got in much earlier, you should be riding on decent profits.
Comment:
two days of bearish candles. we are now back to the resistance turns support level at 4081. See the candles closed on 12 Sep 22, 1 Dec and 13 Dec 22 and you would realise the importance of current support/price level.
Let's see how the market works out next week. Do nothing for now
Let's see how the market works out next week. Do nothing for now
Comment:
added some last night. It is rallying towards the 4300 point.