The_Unwind

SELL Break of S+P 2640 ! Break to Yearly Low S+P 2532 Possible !

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
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I rarely break protocol of intermediate trend
but my charts are demanding that I do so this afternoon.
Sell a Conclusive Break of 2640
It should give you yesterday's low of 2621

OF IMPORTANT NOTE;

IF S+P 500 breaks 2621 weekly low this afternoon 12/7,
then pattern would be a "One Day Reversal"
trading higher,,to 2709,
and then breaking yesterdays low,2621
would be about as bearish can be !

Could then target 88 points lower ..to the 2018 low at 2532 !

My own proprietary chart analysis.
SPX 2641.50 Last

THE_UNWIND
12/7/18 155pm
NEW YORK

Comments

Hello fellow traders,

Re SPX -

Triple bottom. Will bounce. Double tails close for the day. Will bounce. Technicals are driving this market. And those are two of the best technicals you could possibly have. The market is driving the Fed, yes, but only in the sense that the Fed is seeing the volatility and does not want to be blamed for future volatility, as, after all, part of their mandate is to maintain a certain level of low vol in the financial markets. Like the Mueller 'probe' is supposed to not influence elections, and hence why the findings are not released before an election (nevermind that there are NO findings), but I digress.

The market has already communicated to the Fed - insofar as it is humans making the trades. And you reasonably conclude that the market will not continue lower because obviously the market will know that the Fed heard the message loud and clear. Thus, you will see that begin to be priced into the market. Hence, a bounce, and hence the patterns we see which are obviously indicating this eventuality.

What's more, as for the jobs number, bad news will be good news. Simply for the fact that it supports what the market wants to believe on rates.

SPX 2786 in the next two weeks and a believable break above the 200 day. Perhaps higher than 2786, depending on news. Humans will be the wiser the week of 12/10 and will take control. And just like that the 5 cent commentators will start talking about the "Santa Clause" rally all over again. Oh, and by the way, XLU is going to tank during this entire thing.

Please excuse any typos.

Happy trading,
Colton Harris Moore (Google the name) - Orcas Island, WA
Reply
The_Unwind realColtonX
@realColtonX,

Hello Mr.Moore,

I find you very adequately explained rational plausible
in the realm of outside probabilities,
especially your point that since the market has already communicated
to the Fed it will start rallying.
How interesting. Perhaps groundbreaking school of rationalized thought.
However, the technical damage that the market has sustained leaves
it on the cusp of a real meltdown, should something serious come a cropper.

This is THE_UNWIND.
I wrote the commentary you are responding to above..
I have been a trader since 1979, yet I am completely in the dark
about what you mean by "double tails" close the day.
Would you mind following up here at some point,
and explaining to me the significance of that technical event.

Respectfully Yours,in Kind.

Reply
realColtonX The_Unwind
@The_Unwind,

My apologies - I have come to call it "double tails," versus the varied and often wonky names the pattern receives. It's easier for me to recall/recount/explain, as bad of a habit as it might be to come up with your own names for patterns, the pattern of a "Tweezer Bottom," as crude as it may appear on yesterday's (12/6 intraday low: 2621.53) and today's (12/7 intraday low: 2623.14) price action. I believe it will prove to validate the broader triple bottom.

As for the technical damage, touché. However, in my ever humble opinion, I anticipate the market (people) stepping in and discounting the technical breakdown (i.e., 50MA crossing 200MA, among others), by the fact - or perhaps excuse - that it was driven irrationally, if not arbitrarily for the fact that the price action we all observed was exacerbated by pre-programmed executions based on that price action. Breaking technical levels never caused a recession, and the fact that no-one was talking about recession until these levels were reached or accomplished, perhaps speaks to a possibility that people are as skeptical of the moves as they are of buying into the market - yet, as always, it will take very little to convince people to keep playing the game. That very 'little' will prove to not be so little, but something which could happen relatively quickly nonetheless, with a confirmation of the patterns I mentioned, and the news we're expecting over the coming two weeks. If that happens, investors will realize there is nowhere to put their money. Like other corrections (although I believe the timing of this one is different, being at the end of a bull market), people will flood back in. Not 'buy the dip,' but a forced position in that there is nowhere else to make money. Of course, this is the very point which set up the best argument for the market cascading lower: people will simply move to cash, if they choose to wait it out. But something will change, and if I were a betting man, I'd say something will change in the next couple of weeks, and the market will regain certain levels in the 2800 range on the S&P.

I could go on, but you run the risk of being bored by my ranting!

Thank you for the kind words. I have followed your posts for quite awhile and always enjoy. The volatility and setup for next week's make-or-break swings finally lured me out of the dark to leave a comment!

Best,
Reply
The_Unwind realColtonX
@realColtonX,

Oh... you are not going to go back into the shadows
Are you Colton ?

I find your analysis extremely thought provoking and vivid.
The articulation you bring in your words is both gifted, and rare.

My request is simple.
Now that you've poked your head out of the shadows,..stick around.

Either put up your own posts, under your own name..
( You would gain Instant fame here on tradingview.com)
or..if that is too much to ask of you,
then please comment here. often..at will, with your thoughts.

If you need,.. or require a testimonial to get started
..consider this ..<IT>

THE_UNWIND
12/8/18
NEW YORK



Reply
realColtonX The_Unwind
@The_Unwind,


Apologies for the delay in replying.

As for posting on tradingview.com, I think I may just do that! Yet, I am afraid that I prefer the dark of night. Perhaps that's due equally to physiology and comfort zone - yet still, it may be a seeming coincidence due to not typically aspiring to speak publicly.

For some reason, your post changed that and compelled me to post - who doesn't enjoy a good debate? What's more, so long as something is happening in the market which I believe that I understand, I will seriously consider posting about it - may be 10 times per day or once per week. In any event, thank you again for the kind words and for the inspiration!


Colton Harris Moore,
Orcas Island, Washington
Reply
Round and round the merry go round...twisting and turning - Does NOT care about your experience.
Reply
Just was thinking to myself watch this market pull a last 1/2 hour comeback. This market cannot be predicted in any way shape or form...
Reply
Drip drip...
Reply
The_Unwind David_Scott
@David_Scott,

You deserve a ton of credit for your analysis today dedeburn.
I was looking for some rest..but I never got it ,
cause I could'nt get your alarming thoughts out of my head :)
Thank you. I will ALWAYS owe you a debt of gratitude my friend.
+2 Reply
David_Scott The_Unwind
@The_Unwind, Happy to help! Fascinating that the Mueller papers haven't been made public yet. I believe they may be waiting for the market to close before filing (as they are due today).
Reply
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