So....I guess we got our high prob targets sooner than later.
In typical SPY fashion it just gunned for all the targets right off the bet.
So let's recap.
The high prob targets for this week were 4011 on SPX and 399 on SPY.
While SPY was mixed in terms of probability, SPX was extremely convincing, with the odds of upside being 0:5 and the odds of downside being 4:5.
Yes, we sometimes hit those 0 targets, but ONLY the "small" 0 targets, like 0:3 or 0:2. Anything 5 or higher that is 0 I never see hit.
So with that, know that this week our upside is probably capped.
That said, we have removed all the bearish high prob targets. The 99% on UPRO, the high prob ones on SPX and SPY and the weekly bearish targets on IWM, SPY and
So now, we are left with bullish high prob targets. And there was one that I completely missed going into this week. That is on SPX. SPX has a target of 4057.
As well, ES has a TP of 4093.
I did a video update, I attempted to long while I was simultaneously shorting expecting us to get halted at 400 and then recircle back, but we ended up dropping to the 399. To be fair, the probability said 399. I got too caught up with this whole "psychological level 400" which is nothing I ever cared about or thought about before my tradingview days, lol. So I have to remember to just go by the math projections and that is it.
So for tomorrow, the ranges are in the chart. The probability is like so split. There is obviously a preference for bearishness, but that said the actual probability that we end up in the green box vs red box is exactly 6:11 for both.
So my personal plan, for day trading, is to play the opposite. If we gap up into that green box, I would be inclined to be short biased. Vice versa for that red box (only long biased).
I am swinging long. I re-entered long at EOD. The reason, pre-my realization that there was a bullish 99 on SPX, there was a bullish 99 on ES. However, after the damming PA we saw, I would never play to this target. But now that I realize we have 2 separate bullish 99s on various stocks, I am pretty inclined to believe that we will, at the very least, see upside.
Even on the most bearish of times, we can expect retracements and pullbacks and I don't expect this to be any different. And while this is subjective, the whole day felt pretty ... bear trappy, you know? Every time we have seen this kind of massive sell on a Monday (or Tuesday after a STAT day) it was followed by some whipsaw reversal to the upside. So, yeah.
Words of Wisdom
Ohhh.. I haven't done this in a while! Bring back old memories lol.
But yeah, so I see the bulls are being bulls and the bears are being bears. To the bulls, the PA today "CONFIRMS AFFIRMATIVELY" we will see more upside. To the bears, it affirms "ITS OVER, NEW LOWS NEXT WEEK!".
As I read people's ideas on Tradingview, as someone with a clinical psych background, all I see is a site filled with confirmation bias.
You notice how the Elliot wave believers flock to EWT analysts.
The bulls flock to bulls.
The bears flock to bears.
The weirdo outcast (said with love and respect because I too am a weirdo outcast) who don't fit in anywhere and are more realistic about things flock to me (this is serious, everyone who has reached out to me have been the most down to earth, pragmatic people I have seen on tradingview). So I know that those who follow me probably don't need to be told, but be very careful. Try to separate fact from speculation and bias.
I know I have said this before in other posts, but please be mindful about what you are in terms of permabear or permabull. Despite my attempt at always remaining unbiased, I am, always have been and always will be a permabear. I was a bear during the 2021 run, constantly trading TSLA because that was the only stock at the time rewarding shorts (but know, I made tons shorting AMC too, lol!!! Poor APES) and 2022 was great because I could short everything and be rewarded.
That said, I always try to not let my own biases cloud my analyses and my assessments. And so, when I propose, as I am here, that long is probably the correct answer right now, know that this is the most unbiased and truly contrary attitude I can take to the situation. But I really think that we should see upside before we see a ton more downside. But why I say this, is know that most people are advancing their own narratives and justifying it with lines and charts that could be interpreted really any way you want.
This happened with someone else's idea. It was a really interesting idea that they proposed and I wanted to back-test it. And it was something I could do with my math models, so I did it. It turns out, what they were proposing was not an entirely accurate assessment and so I mentioned it only to be told "well... I'm right anyway". Confirmation bias, I am telling you. Its a powerful thing. Also, don't wanna call out anyone, I just want to use it as a cautionary tale of the power of confirmation bias.
So its great to take everyone's idea, mine included, with a grain of salt and really assess the situation and assess your own bias. Do not blindly follow ideas, or me, into trades. Right now we are in a very tempestuous time with the market, and it is difficult to trade and difficult to navigate. Despite finishing the day green and finishing the day with my analysis having been correct (the targets the probs told me were in fact correct), I ended the day being incredibly frustrated because the PA really threw me off. I wasn't expecting this to be so heavy so quickly and it really just took me off guard (I figured we would circle to those bullish TPs before removing the bearish TPs, because in my mind the market should tank with news and PCE). But because I was so biased, and had it in my mind that we should see some upside before we should see those high prob targets realized, I sloppily panic sold my shorts at open, just to have to re-open shorts within the first 10 minutes of open, and then attempted to long while I was simultaneously shorting. It was a mess. And it was an avoidable mess had I just read the data and not ascribed my own bias and my own interpretation to it.
Anyway, those are my thoughts, messy messy. And messy day. But yeah moral of this story is:
I do expect some upside.
The ranges to watch tomorrow on SPX are in the cart.
The probs for tomorrow are so split. And like across the board split.
Futures Hi to Lo is 2:4 and 2:4.
Spy Hi to Lo is 2:3 and 2:3.
SPX hi to lo is 6:11 and 6:11.
Crazy right? But also awesome. I love when this happens because it means that my prob models are doing EXACTLY what they are designed to do correctly :-).
Safe trades everyone!
In typical SPY fashion it just gunned for all the targets right off the bet.
So let's recap.
The high prob targets for this week were 4011 on SPX and 399 on SPY.
While SPY was mixed in terms of probability, SPX was extremely convincing, with the odds of upside being 0:5 and the odds of downside being 4:5.
Yes, we sometimes hit those 0 targets, but ONLY the "small" 0 targets, like 0:3 or 0:2. Anything 5 or higher that is 0 I never see hit.
So with that, know that this week our upside is probably capped.
That said, we have removed all the bearish high prob targets. The 99% on UPRO, the high prob ones on SPX and SPY and the weekly bearish targets on IWM, SPY and
So now, we are left with bullish high prob targets. And there was one that I completely missed going into this week. That is on SPX. SPX has a target of 4057.
As well, ES has a TP of 4093.
I did a video update, I attempted to long while I was simultaneously shorting expecting us to get halted at 400 and then recircle back, but we ended up dropping to the 399. To be fair, the probability said 399. I got too caught up with this whole "psychological level 400" which is nothing I ever cared about or thought about before my tradingview days, lol. So I have to remember to just go by the math projections and that is it.
So for tomorrow, the ranges are in the chart. The probability is like so split. There is obviously a preference for bearishness, but that said the actual probability that we end up in the green box vs red box is exactly 6:11 for both.
So my personal plan, for day trading, is to play the opposite. If we gap up into that green box, I would be inclined to be short biased. Vice versa for that red box (only long biased).
I am swinging long. I re-entered long at EOD. The reason, pre-my realization that there was a bullish 99 on SPX, there was a bullish 99 on ES. However, after the damming PA we saw, I would never play to this target. But now that I realize we have 2 separate bullish 99s on various stocks, I am pretty inclined to believe that we will, at the very least, see upside.
Even on the most bearish of times, we can expect retracements and pullbacks and I don't expect this to be any different. And while this is subjective, the whole day felt pretty ... bear trappy, you know? Every time we have seen this kind of massive sell on a Monday (or Tuesday after a STAT day) it was followed by some whipsaw reversal to the upside. So, yeah.
Words of Wisdom
Ohhh.. I haven't done this in a while! Bring back old memories lol.
But yeah, so I see the bulls are being bulls and the bears are being bears. To the bulls, the PA today "CONFIRMS AFFIRMATIVELY" we will see more upside. To the bears, it affirms "ITS OVER, NEW LOWS NEXT WEEK!".
As I read people's ideas on Tradingview, as someone with a clinical psych background, all I see is a site filled with confirmation bias.
You notice how the Elliot wave believers flock to EWT analysts.
The bulls flock to bulls.
The bears flock to bears.
The weirdo outcast (said with love and respect because I too am a weirdo outcast) who don't fit in anywhere and are more realistic about things flock to me (this is serious, everyone who has reached out to me have been the most down to earth, pragmatic people I have seen on tradingview). So I know that those who follow me probably don't need to be told, but be very careful. Try to separate fact from speculation and bias.
I know I have said this before in other posts, but please be mindful about what you are in terms of permabear or permabull. Despite my attempt at always remaining unbiased, I am, always have been and always will be a permabear. I was a bear during the 2021 run, constantly trading TSLA because that was the only stock at the time rewarding shorts (but know, I made tons shorting AMC too, lol!!! Poor APES) and 2022 was great because I could short everything and be rewarded.
That said, I always try to not let my own biases cloud my analyses and my assessments. And so, when I propose, as I am here, that long is probably the correct answer right now, know that this is the most unbiased and truly contrary attitude I can take to the situation. But I really think that we should see upside before we see a ton more downside. But why I say this, is know that most people are advancing their own narratives and justifying it with lines and charts that could be interpreted really any way you want.
This happened with someone else's idea. It was a really interesting idea that they proposed and I wanted to back-test it. And it was something I could do with my math models, so I did it. It turns out, what they were proposing was not an entirely accurate assessment and so I mentioned it only to be told "well... I'm right anyway". Confirmation bias, I am telling you. Its a powerful thing. Also, don't wanna call out anyone, I just want to use it as a cautionary tale of the power of confirmation bias.
So its great to take everyone's idea, mine included, with a grain of salt and really assess the situation and assess your own bias. Do not blindly follow ideas, or me, into trades. Right now we are in a very tempestuous time with the market, and it is difficult to trade and difficult to navigate. Despite finishing the day green and finishing the day with my analysis having been correct (the targets the probs told me were in fact correct), I ended the day being incredibly frustrated because the PA really threw me off. I wasn't expecting this to be so heavy so quickly and it really just took me off guard (I figured we would circle to those bullish TPs before removing the bearish TPs, because in my mind the market should tank with news and PCE). But because I was so biased, and had it in my mind that we should see some upside before we should see those high prob targets realized, I sloppily panic sold my shorts at open, just to have to re-open shorts within the first 10 minutes of open, and then attempted to long while I was simultaneously shorting. It was a mess. And it was an avoidable mess had I just read the data and not ascribed my own bias and my own interpretation to it.
Anyway, those are my thoughts, messy messy. And messy day. But yeah moral of this story is:
I do expect some upside.
The ranges to watch tomorrow on SPX are in the cart.
The probs for tomorrow are so split. And like across the board split.
Futures Hi to Lo is 2:4 and 2:4.
Spy Hi to Lo is 2:3 and 2:3.
SPX hi to lo is 6:11 and 6:11.
Crazy right? But also awesome. I love when this happens because it means that my prob models are doing EXACTLY what they are designed to do correctly :-).
Safe trades everyone!
Premium indicators and content have launched! Get access at: www.patreon.com/steversteves
